The Political Consequences of Self-Insurance: Evidence from Central-Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia

Abstract

Does self-insurance, such as access to savings or assets, affect support for government? While existing research recognizes that households' ability to privately manage income risk and economic uncertainty influences voter redistributive preferences, we know relatively little about how self-insurance affects evaluations of government in the first place. To gain traction on this question, we combine crosssectional and panel public opinion surveys from 28 countries in Central Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia with macro-data on economic performance. Exploiting variation in citizen responses to the Great Recession, we show that by enabling citizens to smooth consumption, self-insurance affects how they form economic perceptions. Moreover, we find that self-insurance bolsters support for incumbents. Results allow us to better understand why economic downturns may not dampen support for government, even when economic hardship is rife and access to public safety nets is limited.

The Electoral Consequences of International Migration in Sending Countries: Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe

“…This, in turn, affects the recipients’ political attitudes and behavior. When individuals receive financial remittances from abroad, they have fewer economic grievances and are less likely to participate in politics or punish the incumbent for economic downturns (Germano, 2013; Ahmed, 2012; 2017; Tertytchnaya & De Vries, 2018). On the other hand, some studies argue that the financial remittances can make elections more competitive by reducing the recipients’ dependence on the domestic market, and thereby weakening their incentive to maintain clientelist transactions (Lu & Villarreal, 2021).…”

Foreign Assets Management and Capital Expenditure: Firm-Level Evidence from 45 Emerging Market Economies

“…Sula (2011), for instance, presented a welfare-maximisation model with foreign assets through which government is a lender of last resort in the event of external shocks. Likewise, Tertytchnaya and De Vries (2019) suggested a model including a self-insure government financial tool expressly contingent on an output rise. The authors prove considerable income gains caused by the financial mechanism, which provides self-insure against reversal flows and shifts in their likelihood.…”

Mobilizing the Masses: Measuring Resource Mobilization on Twitter

“…Many quantitative studies coming from the social sciences have discussed determinants of discontent and contentious action. But most focused on explaining the causes of social movements’ emergence (or lack thereof; Tertytchnaya and De Vries 2018; Tertytchnaya et al 2018). Conversely, we would like to pique scientific interest in crafting a new measure of contentious action—one that can help quantify the chances of social movement–related activities in a specific society and potentially forecast them in the long run.…”