The political and security dimensions of the humanitarian health response to violent conflict

Wise, Paul H.; Shiel, Annie; Southard, Nicole; Bendavid, Eran; Welsh, Jennifer M.; Stedman, Stephen John; Fazal, Tanisha M.; Felbab-Brown, Vanda; Polatty, David; Waldman, Ronald J.; Spiegel, Paul; Blanchet, Karl; Dayoub, Rita; Zakayo, Aliyu; Barry, Michèle; García, Daniel Martínez; Pagano, H. Pamela; Black, Robert E.; Gaffey, Michelle F; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A

doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(21)00130-6

Cited by 36 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 51 publications

(62 reference statements)

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“…The situation is even worse in Yemen, as the country has been experiencing one of the most devastating crises in human history since World War II, and most of the population need aid in order to survive (15). These situations have resulted in a hidden spread of the pandemic in these three countries (16). There is an urgent need for quantitative assessment of the effects of the conflict on the spread of the pandemic in war-torn countries.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Armed Conflict on the Epidemiological Situation of COVID-19 in Libya, Syria and Yemen

Daw

2021

Front. Public Health

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Background: Since the Arab uprising in 2011, Libya, Syria and Yemen have gone through major internal armed conflicts. This resulted in large numbers of deaths, injuries, and population displacements, with collapse of the healthcare systems. Furthermore, the situation was complicated by the emergence of COVID-19 as a global pandemic, which made the populations of these countries struggle under unusual conditions to deal with both the pandemic and the ongoing wars. This study aimed to determine the impact of the armed conflicts on the epidemiology of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) within these war-torn countries and highlight the strategies needed to combat the spread of the pandemic and its consequences.Methods: Official and public data concerning the dynamics of the armed conflicts and the spread of SARS-COV-2 in Libya, Syria and Yemen were collected from all available sources, starting from the emergence of COVID-19 in each country until the end of December 2020. Datasets were analyzed by a set of statistical techniques and the weekly resolved data were used to probe the link between the intensity levels of the conflict and the prevalence of COVID-19.Results: The data indicated that there was an increase in the intensity of the violence at an early stage from March to August 2020, when it approximately doubled in the three countries, particularly in Libya. During that period, few cases of COVID-19 were reported, ranging from 5 to 53 cases/day. From September to December 2020, a significant decline in the intensity of the armed conflicts was accompanied by steep upsurges in the rate of COVID-19 cases, which reached up to 500 cases/day. The accumulative cases vary from one country to another during the armed conflict. The highest cumulative number of cases were reported in Libya, Syria and Yemen.Conclusions: Our analysis demonstrates that the armed conflict provided an opportunity for SARS-CoV-2 to spread. The early weeks of the pandemic coincided with the most intense period of the armed conflicts, and few cases were officially reported. This indicates undercounting and hidden spread during the early stage of the pandemic. The pandemic then spread dramatically as the armed conflict declined, reaching its greatest spread by December 2020. Full-blown transmission of the COVID-19 pandemic in these countries is expected. Therefore, urgent national and international strategies should be implemented to combat the pandemic and its consequences.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Armed Conflict on the Epidemiological Situation of COVID-19 in Libya, Syria and Yemen

Daw

2021

Front. Public Health

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“…The analyses are ecological, precluding causal inference at the individual level. A country-level analysis likely leads to conservative point estimates for conflict, as data reflect country averages and mask sub-national variation in conflict intensity and likely differential associations across socioeconomic groups [ 54 ]. Studies using individual-level health data from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) seek to address this limitation by better capturing conflict activity in local geographies [ 10 – 13 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Implications of armed conflict for maternal and child health: A regression analysis of data from 181 countries for 2000–2019

et al. 2021

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Background Armed conflicts have major indirect health impacts in addition to the direct harms from violence. They create enduring political instability, destabilise health systems, and foster negative socioeconomic and environmental conditions—all of which constrain efforts to reduce maternal and child mortality. The detrimental impacts of conflict on global maternal and child health are not robustly quantified. This study assesses the association between conflict and maternal and child health globally. Methods and findings Data for 181 countries (2000–2019) from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program and World Bank were analysed using panel regression models. Primary outcomes were maternal, under-5, infant, and neonatal mortality rates. Secondary outcomes were delivery by a skilled birth attendant and diphtheria, pertussis, and tetanus (DPT) and measles vaccination coverage. Models were adjusted for 10 confounders, country and year fixed effects, and conflict lagged by 1 year. Further lagged associations up to 10 years post-conflict were tested. The number of excess deaths due to conflict was estimated. Out of 3,718 country–year observations, 522 (14.0%) had minor conflicts and 148 (4.0%) had wars. In adjusted models, conflicts classified as wars were associated with an increase in maternal mortality of 36.9 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births (95% CI 1.9–72.0; 0.3 million excess deaths [95% CI 0.2 million–0.4 million] over the study period), an increase in infant mortality of 2.8 per 1,000 live births (95% CI 0.1–5.5; 2.0 million excess deaths [95% CI 1.6 million–2.5 million]), a decrease in DPT vaccination coverage of 4.9% (95% CI 1.5%–8.3%), and a decrease in measles vaccination coverage of 7.3% (95% CI 2.7%–11.8%). The long-term impacts of war were demonstrated by associated increases in maternal mortality observed for up to 7 years, in under-5 mortality for 3–5 years, in infant mortality for up to 8 years, in DPT vaccination coverage for up to 3 years, and in measles vaccination coverage for up to 2 years. No evidence of association between armed conflict and neonatal mortality or delivery by a skilled birth attendant was found. Study limitations include the ecological study design, which may mask sub-national variation in conflict intensity, and the quality of the underlying data. Conclusions Our analysis indicates that armed conflict is associated with substantial and persistent excess maternal and child deaths globally, and with reductions in key measures that indicate reduced availability of organised healthcare. These findings highlight the importance of protecting women and children from the indirect harms of conflict, including those relating to health system deterioration and worsening socioeconomic conditions.

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“…The nature of contemporary armed conflicts: analysing security attributes of the ten case study countries Humanitarian actors are confronted today by increasingly complex armed conficts. As analysed by Wise et al in this Series, 9 each conflict possesses its own unique character and history, and the impact of each conflict on civilian populations is rooted in complex political, strategic, and military determinants. Derived and expanded from the conceptual framework presented in Wise et.al, 9 Table 1 presents selected attributes of the case study conflicts related to the nature of warfare and the strategies and tactics of the engaged state and nonstate combatant groups.…”

Section: Panel 1 Case Study Selection Criteria and Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As analysed by Wise et al in this Series, 9 each conflict possesses its own unique character and history, and the impact of each conflict on civilian populations is rooted in complex political, strategic, and military determinants. Derived and expanded from the conceptual framework presented in Wise et.al, 9 Table 1 presents selected attributes of the case study conflicts related to the nature of warfare and the strategies and tactics of the engaged state and nonstate combatant groups. All the country case study conflicts are both intra-state, often labelled "civil" wars, and also internationalised, inter-state wars or conflict initiated by Non State Armed Groups (NSAGs) operating internationally.…”

Section: Panel 1 Case Study Selection Criteria and Methodologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Delivering health interventions to women, children, and adolescents in conflict settings: what have we learned from ten country case studies?

et al. 2021

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Armed conflict disproportionately affects women, newborns, children, and adolescents. Our study presents insights from a collection of ten country case studies aiming to assess the provision of sexual, reproductive, maternal, newborn, child and adolescent health and nutrition (abbreviated to women's and childern's health, i.e WCH in this paper) interventions in conflict-affected settings in Afghanistan,

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The political and security dimensions of the humanitarian health response to violent conflict

Cited by 36 publications

References 51 publications

The Impact of Armed Conflict on the Epidemiological Situation of COVID-19 in Libya, Syria and Yemen

The Impact of Armed Conflict on the Epidemiological Situation of COVID-19 in Libya, Syria and Yemen

Implications of armed conflict for maternal and child health: A regression analysis of data from 181 countries for 2000–2019

Delivering health interventions to women, children, and adolescents in conflict settings: what have we learned from ten country case studies?

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