The polar regions in a 2°C warmer world

Post, Eric; Alley, Richard B.; Christensen, Torben R.; Macias‐Fauria, Marc; Forbes, Bruce C.; Gooseff, M. N.; Iler, Amy M.; Kerby, Jeffrey T.; Laidre, Kristin L.; Mann, Michael; Olofsson, Johan; Stroeve, Julienne; Ulmer, Fran; Virginia, Ross A.; Wang, Muyin

doi:10.1126/sciadv.aaw9883

Cited by 342 publications

(288 citation statements)

References 148 publications

(177 reference statements)

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“…The impact of climate change on the world's biota has manifested broadly, resulting in latitudinal range shifts, advancing dates of arrival of migrants and onset of breeding, and altered ecosystems (Post et al. , ). For ice‐dependent species in polar ecosystems, climate change has resulted in heightened conservation concerns because of negative impacts of sea ice loss on most aspects of these species' life history (e.g., Derocher et al.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interrelated ecological impacts of climate change on an apex predator

Laidre

Atkinson

Regehr

et al. 2020

Ecological Applications

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Climate change has broad ecological implications for species that rely on sensitive habitats. For some top predators, loss of habitat is expected to lead to cascading behavioral, nutritional, and reproductive changes that ultimately accelerate population declines. In the case of the polar bear (Ursus maritimus), declining Arctic sea ice reduces access to prey and lengthens seasonal fasting periods. We used a novel combination of physical capture, biopsy darting, and visual aerial observation data to project reproductive performance for polar bears by linking sea ice loss to changes in habitat use, body condition (i.e., fatness), and cub production. Satellite telemetry data from 43 (1991-1997) and 38 (2009-2015) adult female polar bears in the Baffin Bay subpopulation showed that bears now spend an additional 30 d on land (90 d in total) in the 2000s compared to the 1990s, a change closely correlated with changes in spring sea ice breakup and fall sea ice formation. Body condition declined for all sex, age, and reproductive classes and was positively correlated with sea ice availability in the current and previous year. Furthermore, cub litter size was positively correlated with maternal condition and spring breakup date (i.e., later breakup leading to larger litters), and negatively correlated with the duration of the ice-free period (i.e., longer ice-free periods leading to smaller litters). Based on these relationships, we projected reproductive performance three polar bear generations into the future (approximately 35 yr). Results indicate that two-cub litters, previously the norm, could largely disappear from Baffin Bay as sea ice loss continues. Our findings demonstrate how concurrent analysis of multiple data types collected over long periods from polar bears can provide a mechanistic understanding of the ecological implications of climate change. This information is needed for long-term conservation planning, which includes quantitative harvest risk assessments that incorporate estimated or assumed trends in future environmental carrying capacity.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interrelated ecological impacts of climate change on an apex predator

Laidre

Atkinson

Regehr

et al. 2020

Ecological Applications

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“…Predicting the impacts of climate change on wildlife is one of the biggest challenges that ecologists face (Pacifici et al, 2015;Post et al, 2019). Species and subpopulations exhibit variable responses to climate change over time and space (Mortiz & Agudo, 2013;Post et al, 2009Post et al, , 2013.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Transient benefits of climate change for a high‐Arctic polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulation

Laidre

Atkinson

Regehr

et al. 2020

Global Change Biology

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Kane Basin (KB) is one of the world's most northerly polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulations, where bears have historically inhabited a mix of thick multiyear and annual sea ice year-round. Currently, KB is transitioning to a seasonally ice-free region because of climate change. This ecological shift has been hypothesized to benefit polar bears in the near-term due to thinner ice with increased biological production, although this has not been demonstrated empirically. We assess sea-ice changes in KB together with changes in polar bear movements, seasonal ranges, body condition, and reproductive metrics obtained from capture-recapture (physical and genetic) and satellite telemetry studies during two study periods (1993-1997 and 2012-2016). The annual cycle of sea-ice habitat in KB shifted from a year-round ice platform (~50% coverage in summer) in the 1990s to nearly complete melt-out in summer (<5% coverage) in the 2010s. The mean duration between sea-ice retreat and advance increased from 109 to 160 days (p = .004). Between the 1990s and 2010s, adult female (AF) seasonal ranges more than doubled in spring and summer and were significantly larger in all months. Body condition scores improved for all ages and both sexes. Mean litter sizes of cubs-of-the-year (C0s) and yearlings (C1s), and the number of C1s per AF, did not change between decades. The date of spring sea-ice retreat in the previous year was positively correlated with C1 litter size, suggesting smaller litters following years with earlier sea-ice breakup. Our study provides evidence for range expansion, improved body condition, and stable reproductive performance in the KB polar bear subpopulation. These changes, together with a likely increasing subpopulation abundance, may reflect the shift from thick, multiyear ice to thinner, seasonal ice with higher biological productivity. The duration of these benefits is unknown because, under unmitigated climate change, continued sea-ice loss is expected to eventually have negative demographic and ecological effects on all polar bears.

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“…Species response to environmental shifts, including ongoing climate changes, is one of the crucial questions in natural sciences. It is a particularly outstanding issue in the Arctic where rates of temperature and precipitation are changing at the fastest pace in the world, and are predicted to continue rising rapidly 26,27 . These changes impact mechanisms that alter biogeochemical cycles and determine critical ecosystem-climate feedback processes, such as the release of organic carbon of which nearly half of the global stock is stored in the Arctic soils 28 , 29 or increased growth of vascular plants.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can root-associated fungi mediate the impact of abiotic conditions on the growth of a High Arctic herb?

Wutkowska

Ehrich

Mundra

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Arctic plants are affected by many stressors. Root-associated fungi are thought to influence plant performance in stressful environmental conditions. However, the relationships are not transparent; do the number of fungal partners, their ecological functions and community composition mediate the impact of environmental conditions and/or influence host plant performance? To address these questions, we used a common arctic plant as a model system: Bistorta vivipara . Whole plants (including root system) were collected from nine locations in Spitsbergen (n=214). Morphometric features were measured as a proxy for performance and combined with metabarcoding datasets of their root-associated fungi (amplicon sequence variants, ASVs), edaphic and meteorological variables. Seven biological hypotheses regarding fungal influence on plant measures were tested using structural equation modelling. The best-fitting model revealed that local temperature affected plants both directly (negatively aboveground and positively below-ground) and indirectly -mediated by fungal richness and the ratio of symbio-and saprotrophic ASVs. Fungal community composition did not impact plant measurements and plant reproductive investment did not depend on any fungal parameters. The lack of impact of fungal community composition on plant performance suggests that the functional importance of fungi is more important than their identity. The influence of temperature on host plants is therefore complex and should be examined further.

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The polar regions in a 2°C warmer world

Cited by 342 publications

References 148 publications

Interrelated ecological impacts of climate change on an apex predator

Interrelated ecological impacts of climate change on an apex predator

Transient benefits of climate change for a high‐Arctic polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulation

Can root-associated fungi mediate the impact of abiotic conditions on the growth of a High Arctic herb?

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