The Planetary Theory of Solar Activity Variability: A Review

Abstract

Commenting the 11-year sunspot cycle, Wolf (1859, MNRAS 19, 85–86) conjectured that “the variations of spot-frequency depend on the influences of Venus, Earth, Jupiter, and Saturn.” The high synchronization of our planetary system is already nicely revealed by the fact that the ratios of the planetary orbital radii are closely related to each other through a scaling-mirror symmetry equation (Bank and Scafetta, Front. Astron. Space Sci. 8, 758184, 2022). Reviewing the many planetary harmonics and the orbital invariant inequalities that characterize the planetary motions of the solar system from the monthly to the millennial time scales, we show that they are not randomly distributed but clearly tend to cluster around some specific values that also match those of the main solar activity cycles. In some cases, planetary models have even been able to predict the time-phase of the solar oscillations including the Schwabe 11-year sunspot cycle. We also stress that solar models based on the hypothesis that solar activity is regulated by its internal dynamics alone have never been able to reproduce the variety of the observed cycles. Although planetary tidal forces are weak, we review a number of mechanisms that could explain how the solar structure and the solar dynamo could get tuned to the planetary motions. In particular, we discuss how the effects of the weak tidal forces could be significantly amplified in the solar core by an induced increase in the H-burning. Mechanisms modulating the electromagnetic and gravitational large-scale structure of the planetary system are also discussed.

CMIP6 GCM ensemble members versus global surface temperatures

“…: Lewis and Curry, 2018;Lindzen and Choi, 2011;Scafetta, 2013;Stefani, 2021;van Wijngaarden and Happer, 2020). If so, future climate warming and changes will be moderate and naturally oscillating (Scafetta, 2013(Scafetta, , 2021c and the rate of global surface warming should likely remain quite low until 2030-2040, when solar activity is expected to increase again due to its natural multi-decadal oscillations (Scafetta, 2012b;Scafetta and Bianchini, 2022, and several others).…”

Natural Disasters are Not All Natural

“…However, although there are many solar cycles (Schwabe cycle (Schwabe 11-year sunspot cycle), Hale cycle (22-years), Gleissberg cycle (~85 years), Jose cycle (~178 years), Suess-de Vries cycle (~208 years), Eddy cycle (~1000 years), and Bray-Hallstatt cycle (~2300 years)), whose interactions are complex [129], and which can superimpose on and influence natural terrestrial oscillations [113,130,131,132], the Schwabe cycle shows weak solar activity since cycle 24 (2008 to 2019) (Fig. 7), and this low activity will continue until ~2050 [133,134,129]. Consequently, the rise in frequency and intensity of at least some extreme environmental events in recent years cannot be attributed to an increase in solar activity.…”

Sunspot Occurrence Forecasting With Metaheuristic Optimized Recurrent Neural Networks

“…To deal with and prevent these unwanted consequences, a way of predicting solar events using an accurate data-driven system is needed. The solar magnetic cycle refers to a well-known pattern of solar events almost periodically happening every 11 years [5]. The high period of the cycle is of particular interest since the emissions are more frequent during it.…”