The Performance of ECMWF Subseasonal Forecasts to Predict the Rainy Season Onset Dates in Vietnam

Abstract

The onset of the rainy season is an important date for the mostly rain-fed agricultural practices in Vietnam. Sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) ensemble hindcasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are used to evaluate the predictability of the rainy season onset dates (RSODs) over five climatic sub-regions of Vietnam. The results show that the ECMWF model reproduces well the observed inter-annual variability of RSODs, with a high correlation ranging from 0.60 to 0.99 over all sub-regions at all lead times (up to 40 days) using five different RSOD definitions. For increasing lead times, forecasted RSODs tend to be earlier than the observed ones. Positive skill score values for almost all cases examined in all sub-regions indicate that the model outperforms the observed climatology in predicting the RSOD at sub-seasonal lead times (~28–35 days). However, the model is overall more skilful at shorter lead times. The choice of the RSOD criterion should be considered because it can significantly influence the model performance. The result of analysing the highest skill score for each sub-region at each lead time shows that criteria with higher 5-day rainfall thresholds tend to be more suitable for the forecasts at long lead times. However, the values of mean absolute error are approximately the same as the absolute values of the mean error, indicating that the prediction could be improved by a simple bias correction. The present study shows a large potential to use S2S forecasts to provide meaningful predictions of RSODs for farmers.