The Perception and Valuation of the Risks of Climate Change: A Rational and Behavioral Blend

Abstract

Over 250 respondents -graduate students in law and public policy -assessed the risks of climate change and valued climate-change mitigation policies. Many aspects of their behavior were consistent with rational behavior. For example, respondents successfully estimated distributions of temperature increases in Boston by 2100. The median value of best estimates was 1-3 degrees Fahrenheit. In addition, people with higher risk estimates, whether for temperature or related risks (e.g., hurricane intensities) offered more to avoid warming. Median willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid global warming was $0.50/gallon, and 3% of income. And important scope tests (e.g., respondents paid more for bigger accomplishments) were passed. However, significant behavioral propensities also emerged. For example, accessibility of neutral information on global warming boosted risk estimates. Warming projections correlated with estimates for unrelated risks, such as earthquakes and heart attacks. The implied WTP for avoidance was much greater when asked as a percent of income than as a gas tax, a percent thinking bias. Home team betting showed itself; individuals predicting a Bush victory predicted smaller temperature increases. In the climate-change arena, behavioral decision tendencies are like a fun-house mirror: They magnify some estimates and shrink others, but the contours of rational decision remain recognizable.

Distributional Preferences and the Incidence of Costs and Benefits in Climate Change Policy

“…The WTP estimates derived from this sample are of similar magnitude to those in Lee and Cameron (2008). Also, for their web-based survey of a sample of roughly 250 Harvard graduate students in law and public policy, Viscusi and Zeckhauser (2006) find that median WTP to prevent climate change is about 3% of income (and the mean was 6%). They estimate that average expected income for these students is something like $150,000 per year, which implies that median annual WTP would be about $4,500 and mean annual WTP would be about $9,000.…”

Climate Change: Concerns, Beliefs and Emotions in Residents, Experts, Decision Makers, Tourists, and Tourist Industry

“…This relation between knowledge of climate change per se and confidence in that knowledge on an individual level has recently been found to vary across types of people [11], showing that both knowledge and confidence in one's own knowledge were highest among scientists followed by journalists, politicians and laypersons. It is also indicated that better knowledge of [4,12], and greater concern for [13,14], climate change may promote pro-environmental behaviour.…”

Pre-Service Teachers and Climate Change: A Stalemate?

“…Such problematic gaps in knowledge and understanding are not restricted to PSTs. Studies conducted with diverse US university students report that this population also holds an array of misconceptions about the basic causes and consequences of climate change (Cordero, Todd, & Abellera, 2008;Kerr & Walz, 2007;Khalid, 2003;Viscusi & Zeckhauser, 2006;Wachholz, Artz, & Chene, 2014). For instance, when Cordero et al (2008) examined meteorology undergraduates' understanding of the connection between personal energy use and climate change, two-thirds (N =123) believed that energy-saving light bulbs had no effect on climate change and the production of electricity was "greenhouse gas free".…”