The peak structure and future changes of the relationships between extreme precipitation and temperature

Wang, Guiling; Wang, Dagang; Trenberth, Kevin E.; Erfanian, Amir; Yu, Miao; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Parr, Dana

doi:10.1038/nclimate3239

Cited by 243 publications

(207 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…by Kendon et al (2014), Gorman (2015), Ban et al (2015) and Prein et al (2016b)], the true scaling rates are-in our view-only approximated since the temperature for days with extreme precipitation events will differ. Wang et al (2017) showed that scaling unconditional extreme daily precipitation (defined with no regard to temperature) with mean seasonal temperature may yield a spuriously low scaling rate (2-5% K −1 ), that is not directly related to any specific process or to C-C scaling.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This exceedance is most probably related to the release of latent heat in convective precipitation and in updrafts and the accompanied enhanced moisture convergence (Lenderink and van Meijgaard 2008;Berg et al 2013;Lenderink et al 2017). Globally, extreme precipitation scaling rates with temperature differ between regions (Utsumi et al 2011;Wang et al 2017). For very high temperatures, the extreme precipitation intensity starts to decrease with temperature increase when moisture supply becomes limited (Hardwick Jones et al 2010;Chan et al 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For very high temperatures, the extreme precipitation intensity starts to decrease with temperature increase when moisture supply becomes limited (Hardwick Jones et al 2010;Chan et al 2016). The temperature with the highest precipitation intensities and the subsequent negative scaling rate of precipitation with temperature depend on local climate conditions, i.e., especially moisture availability (Utsumi et al 2011;Drobinski et al 2016;Prein et al 2016b;Wang et al 2017). …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evaluation and projected changes of precipitation statistics in convection-permitting WRF climate simulations over Central Europe

Knist

Goergen²,

Simmer

2018

Clim Dyn

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We perform simulations with the WRF regional climate model at 12 and 3 km grid resolution for the current and future climates over Central Europe and evaluate their added value with a focus on the daily cycle and frequency distribution of rainfall and the relation between extreme precipitation and air temperature. First, a 9 year period of ERA-Interim driven simulations is evaluated against observations; then global climate model runs (MPI-ESM-LR RCP4.5 scenario) are downscaled and analyzed for three 12-year periods: a control, a mid-of-century and an end-of-century projection. The higher resolution simulations reproduce both the diurnal cycle and the hourly intensity distribution of precipitation more realistically compared to the 12 km simulation. Moreover, the observed increase of the temperature-extreme precipitation scaling from the Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) scaling rate of ~ 7% K −1 to a super-adiabatic scaling rate for temperatures above 11 °C is reproduced only by the 3 km simulation. The drop of the scaling rates at high temperatures under moisture limited conditions differs between sub-regions. For both future scenario time spans both simulations suggest a slight decrease in mean summer precipitation and an increase in hourly heavy and extreme precipitation. This increase is stronger in the 3 km runs. Temperature-extreme precipitation scaling curves in the future climate are projected to shift along the 7% K −1 trajectory to higher peak extreme precipitation values at higher temperatures. The curves keep their typical shape of C-C scaling followed by super-adiabatic scaling and a drop-off at higher temperatures due to moisture limitation.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evaluation and projected changes of precipitation statistics in convection-permitting WRF climate simulations over Central Europe

Knist

Goergen²,

Simmer

2018

Clim Dyn

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“…Such information is also needed to generate predictions of how river nutrient loads and catchment exports are likely to change under future climate regimes. This latter point is particularly important given that most climate change scenarios suggest an increase in the magnitude and frequency of episodic precipitation events and soil drying through drought across many areas of the world [Kendon et al, 2014;Mann et al, 2017], particularly where local temperatures are <25°C [Wang et al, 2017], which in turn are likely to drive changes in other hydrological variables that influence nutrient flux and in-channel processing through river catchments [Garner et al, 2015].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

High‐frequency monitoring of catchment nutrient exports reveals highly variable storm event responses and dynamic source zone activation

et al. 2017

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Storm events can drive highly variable behavior in catchment nutrient and water fluxes, yet short‐term event dynamics are frequently missed by low‐resolution sampling regimes. In addition, nutrient source zone contributions can vary significantly within and between storm events. Our inability to identify and characterize time‐dynamic source zone contributions severely hampers the adequate design of land use management practices in order to control nutrient exports from agricultural landscapes. Here we utilize an 8 month high‐frequency (hourly) time series of streamflow, nitrate (NO3‐N), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and hydroclimatic variables for a headwater agricultural catchment. We identified 29 distinct storm events across the monitoring period. These events represented 31% of the time series and contributed disproportionately to nutrient loads (42% of NO3‐N and 43% of DOC) relative to their duration. Regression analysis identified a small subset of hydroclimatological variables (notably precipitation intensity and antecedent conditions) as key drivers of nutrient dynamics during storm events. Hysteresis analysis of nutrient concentration‐discharge relationships highlighted the dynamic activation of discrete NO3‐N and DOC source zones, which varied on an event‐specific basis. Our results highlight the benefits of high‐frequency in situ monitoring for characterizing short‐term nutrient fluxes and unraveling connections between hydroclimatological variability and river nutrient export and source zone activation under extreme flow conditions. These new process‐based insights, which we summarize in a conceptual model, are fundamental to underpinning targeted management measures to reduce nutrient loading of surface waters.

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“…, and recent investigations have shown increases in deep convective precipitation can exceed the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship (known as the Super Clausius-Clapeyron Scaling effect, e.g., Lenderink and Van Meijgaard, 2009;Berg et al, 2013;Wang et al, 2017;Lenderink et al, 2017).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Convection-permitting regional climate simulations for representing floods in small and medium sized catchments in the Eastern Alps

Reszler¹,

Switanek²,

Truhetz³

2018

Preprint

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Abstract. Small scale floods are a consequence of high precipitation rates in small areas that can occur along frontal activity and convective storms. This situation is expected to become more severe due to a warming climate, when single precipitation events resulting from deep convection become more intense ("Super Clausius-Clapeyron effect"). Regional climate model (RCM) evaluations and inter-comparisons have shown that there is evidence that an increase in regional climate model 10 resolution and in particular, at the convection permitting scale, will lead to a better representation of the spatial and temporal characteristics of heavy precipitation at small and medium scales. In this paper, the benefit of grid size reduction and bias correction in climate models are evaluated in their ability to properly represent flood generation in small and medium sized catchments. The climate models are coupled with a distributed hydrological model. The study area is the Eastern Alps, where small scale storms often occur along with heterogeneous rainfall distributions leading to a very local flash flood 15 generation. The work is carried out in a small multi-model (ensemble) framework using two different RCMs (CCLM and WRF) in different grid sizes. Bias correction is performed by the use of the novel Scaled Distribution Mapping (SDM) method. The results show, that for small catchments (< 200 km²) a resolution of 3 km is essential to accurately simulate the magnitude of flood events. Flood frequency and seasonality are both represented well in all catchments. In the larger catchments resolutions of 12.5 km and 50 km already yield statistically satisfying results, but poor results regarding 20 seasonality. Also, due to the short response times in the small sub-catchments a time step of 1 hour is required. In all setups a bias still exists in precipitation and temperature, which sometimes leads to unrealistic hydrological conditions demonstrating the necessity of bias correction. The results show the added value of reducing grid size and bias correction in climate models that can be used to model flood mechanisms in small and medium sized catchments.

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The peak structure and future changes of the relationships between extreme precipitation and temperature

Cited by 243 publications

References 29 publications

Evaluation and projected changes of precipitation statistics in convection-permitting WRF climate simulations over Central Europe

Evaluation and projected changes of precipitation statistics in convection-permitting WRF climate simulations over Central Europe

High‐frequency monitoring of catchment nutrient exports reveals highly variable storm event responses and dynamic source zone activation

Convection-permitting regional climate simulations for representing floods in small and medium sized catchments in the Eastern Alps

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