The peak oil and oil vulnerability discourse in urban transport policy: A comparative discourse analysis of Hong Kong and Brisbane

Abstract

The nexus of transport, energy and household expenditure garnered increasing academic attention during the period of increased oil prices during the decade from 2000 to 2010. Peak oil emerged as a widely discussed 'storyline' advocated by a globally connected discourse coalition. This study explores the effects of the peak oil discourse in influencing urban transport policy. Two distinct cases are examined in this paper: high density and public transport dominant Hong Kong; and, low density and car dependent Brisbane. Data was obtained from interviews with stakeholders, public documents and media concerning the period between 2003 and 2015 when oil prices were high. This study combines analytical tools from Kingdon's multiple streams framework and Hajer's discourse analysis to assess the effects of the peak oil discourse in Brisbane and Hong Kong. While different urban settings are likely to be major differentiators in the responses of participants from the two cities, higher oil prices have bolstered the voice of 'affordability' storylines that have emerged in both cities. Yet only Brisbane exhibited official usage of 'peak oil' storylines. Counter storylines are found to have been adopted by opposing discourse coalitions, either focusing on the need to develop and deploy technical solutions which can resolve 'peak oil' or to simply 'wait-and-see'. The framing of the issue of heightened oil prices can be seen as acting as a political catalyst, as evidenced by the rise of fall of the response to 'peak oil' and 'oil vulnerability' in Brisbane. As oil prices crashed after 2015, the affordability pressure on urban transport also reduced. When oil prices are low, policy makers or interested stakeholders should expect to adapt other storylines that feature climate and economic resilience which promote sustainable transport and measures to reduce oil vulnerability, no matter how car, or oil, dependent a local environment is.

Household transport costs, economic stress and energy vulnerability

“…The first article sets the policy context for the remainder of the special issue. Leung, Burke, Perl and Cui (2017) show how the nexus of transport, energy and household expenditure emerged as a relevant issue in the 'noughties'. Applying political science analysis frameworks (something which is unfortunately too rare in transport policy research -see Marsden & Reardon, 2017), and using a mix of stakeholder interviews and documentary analysis, they investigate to what extent the 'peak oil' discourse influenced urban transport policy and planning in two Asia-Pacific cities.…”

“…The spectrum of social science disciplines covered is wide, ranging from anthropology (Ortar, 2017) to mainstream urban economics (Coulombel, 2017). From a methodological point of view, the bulk of the articles adopt quantitative methods, but these are complemented by studies based on qualitative interviews with households and stakeholders (Belton Chevallier et al, 2017;Leung et al, 2017;Ortar, 2017), and by papers presenting theoretical overviews (Mattioli et al, 2017;Scheiner, 2017). Beyond these broad classifications, the articles show a remarkable variety of entry points to the topic, as illustrated in the next section.…”

Urban energy futures: a comparative analysis

“…In light of the above analysis, I will now review the cases of two cities in which I have lived: Hong Kong, which is hopelessly unsustainable in its current form and population size beyond fossil fuels; and Vancouver, B.C., which is sustainable into the twenty-second century in regard to the supply of electricity, but which will face major changes in transportation, the supply of food, and the mix of occupations, to adapt to the depletion of fossil fuels. It can be useful to compare two cities with quite different profiles if the impacts of those differences on energy-related outcomes can be highlighted and explained in the analysis (e.g., [83]).…”

“…However, the late twenty-first century is far beyond the planning horizons of government, academics, think tanks, NGOs, and local political parties. Despite some attempts to raise the issue of longer-term energy depletion in local discourse (e.g., by a local peak oil advocacy group formed in 2007, and by a few academics, e.g., [94,95]), the eventual loss of fossil fuels in the city's energy mix, and the likely consequences for the city's population, receive almost no attention from planners, politicians, or NGOs [83]. The city is drifting-unaware, preoccupied with current issues, complacent, disbelieving, or uncaring-toward a very different future.…”

Study of the behavior pattern, carbon reduction effect and business costs of electric motorcycles on island

“…Motor vehicle use is seen as a major contributor to climate change, air pollution [11] and oil dependence [12]. In order to mitigate the negative effects of personal transport, electrification (e-mobility) is proposed and increasingly being adopted by governments worldwide.…”