The Party Goes On: U.S. Young Adults’ Partisanship and Political Engagement Across Age and Historical Time

Abstract

This article examines effects of political party affiliation on U.S. young adults’ political participation across age and historical time. Using national U.S. longitudinal Monitoring the Future data from youth aged 18 to 30 years, we estimate effects of partisanship (Democrat, Republican, Other) on change in youth’s electoral and political voice participation with age, and test whether effects differ between 1976 and 2003. Political engagement and partisanship declined for young adults over several decades. Partisanship had a consistent positive effect on electoral participation across age and cohort. Democratic youth were higher on nonelectoral participation for some cohorts, and Democrats and Republican youth showed growth in nonelectoral participation at different historical moments. Although younger cohorts of Americans are less politically engaged based on available measures, political parties still remain a powerful force for political participation among those who choose to affiliate. Youth’s partisan attachments and political behavior are best understood in historical context.

Civic development across the transition to adulthood in a national U.S. sample: Variations by race/ethnicity, parent education, and gender.

“…Data were recoded such that a ‘4’ was carried forward to later waves, so that once a person said they participated in a behavior, they were considered as having participated thereafter. This strategy was used because of the lack of survey prompt providing a time frame on which to report behavior and has been used previously (Wray-Lake, Arruda, & Hopkins, 2019). Recoding offers a more conservative and precise interpretation of the data over time.…”

Youth are watching: Adolescents’ sociopolitical development in the Trump era

“…Additionally, Trump supporters increased intentions to vote, which aligns with social influence theory in that young supporters would be invested in Trump's success and re‐election. Trends in partisanship and adult voting behavior shift over historical time and may not show this same pattern (Wattenberg, 2009), but for youth, strongly admiring a party leader or platform may lead youth who identify with that party to want to participate in the electoral system (Wray‐Lake et al, 2019). Yet, it remains unclear whether this trend continued throughout Trump's presidency, as Trump challenged the legitimacy of elections and expressed considerable anti‐government sentiment over time, which contradicts investment in participation in the system.…”

“…The implications of our findings also extend well beyond the Trump era, demonstrating that adolescents’ SPD is shaped by the larger political moments in which they grow up (Davis, 2004; Sears & Valentino, 1997). Importantly, macro‐political contexts do not affect all adolescents in the same way, but instead differentially impact youth depending on youth's own political views and experiences (Wray‐Lake et al, 2019). We brought together three theoretical perspectives—social influence, social contract, and polarization—that are not mutually exclusive and each received some support in our data.…”

“…Given that youth's political beliefs and actions show substantial shifts at different historical moments (Oosterhoff et al, 2020; Syvertsen et al, 2011), and that these beliefs and action patterns may crystallize over the lifespan (Sears & Levy, 2003), more research is needed on how particular historical moments are shaping adolescents’ SPD. The specific effects of political moments on adolescents’ SPD vary depending on the context and the unique political views youth bring to the context (Wray‐Lake et al, 2019). Identifying developmental change in sociopolitical constructs during the Trump presidency has importance for understanding the experiences of today's youth and advancing scholarship on how political moments shape adolescent development more broadly.…”

Sociopolitical Participation Among Marginalized Youth: Do Political Identification and Ideology Matter?

“…Ideology and identification are related but not synonymous. Party identification has been found to be an important predictor of how individuals vote (Knight, 1999) and even within youth samples, has been found to be strongly associated with future political participation (Wray-Lake et al, 2019).…”