The parliamentary elections in Turkey, November 2015

Sözen, Yunus

doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2016.05.005

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

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“…Around the same time, a tentative truce was observed and fatalities decreased to lowest levels since the early 2000s (Tezcür 2016a, 67). With the end of the ceasefire in July 2015 political violence became the single most important issue in the country (Sözen 2016, 201).…”

Section: Background On Turkeymentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effect of Curfews on Political Preferences

Aksoy

Menger

Tavits

2022

Journal of Conflict Resolution

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Governments often use curfews as counterinsurgency measures. Do such state actions affect citizens’ political preferences? We argue that citizens’ responses depend on their group alignment. Citizens who are aligned with the government are more likely to interpret state actions as serving their interests and reward the governing parties as a result. Citizens who are aligned with the insurgent movement, however, are likely to interpret these same actions as targeted and disengage from politics: they have no reason to reward the governing parties and may also be fearful of expressing support for the parties affiliated with the insurgent movement. We find support for this argument with survey data from Turkey, fielded before and during curfews. When exposed to curfews, Turks generally increase their support for the governing party. However Kurds do not increase their support for the governing party or the opposition; instead, we present strong evidence that they withdraw their support from the Kurdish opposition and become more hesitant to express any political preferences.

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Section: Background On Turkeymentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effect of Curfews on Political Preferences

Aksoy

Menger

Tavits

2022

Journal of Conflict Resolution

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“…The collapse of the two-year-long ceasefire in July led to an increase in the number of violent events in the country. Political violence became the single most important issue before the November elections (Sözen, 2016: 201). The June and November elections held within a period of six months provide us with an opportunity to more carefully study how support received by parties in the first election influences patterns of violence in the months leading up to the second election.…”

Section: Empirical Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Electoral support and militants’ targeting strategies

Aksoy

Carlson

2021

Journal of Peace Research

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Militant groups that are in armed conflict with a government often coexist with political parties that have ethnic or ideological connections to them. In this article, we explore the extent to which electoral support received by militant associated opposition parties and nationally incumbent political parties influences subnational variation in militant attacks. We argue, and empirically demonstrate, that militants strategically target localities where the levels of electoral support for the opposition party and the nationally incumbent party are close in an effort to negatively influence the electoral performance of the incumbent party. To illustrate this dynamic we examine subnational data from 1995 to 2015 Turkish legislative elections and attacks organized by the Kurdish militants within the same time period. We also examine the impact of June 2015 legislative elections on militant attacks until the snap elections in November 2015. Our empirical examination shows that militants target localities where electoral support for the governing party and Kurdish opposition party is close. Moreover, increase in violence negatively influences the electoral performance of the governing party. However, it does not consistently have a significant influence on the opposition. The findings illustrate that militants strategically choose the location of their attacks based on electoral dynamics, and attacks can pose an electoral challenge to the governing party.

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“…The violence continued after the elections in June until the snap elections in November (for an overview of results, see Sözen 2016). A HDP Law Commission report stated that in August, there were 9 assaults on HDP buildings in cities such as Istanbul, Antalya, Burdur and Adana.…”

Section: Pre-and Post-election Attacks On the Hdpmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The polarising strategy seems to have worked for the AKP, and it returned to power with a greater majority in the November 2015 election. The HDP lost a significant percentage of its vote but still managed to scrape past the threshold (Sözen 2016). Many Kurds abstained from voting or switched support back to the AKP as they viewed as it the best way, regardless of their actual political preferences to bring about an end to violence.…”

Section: Pre-and Post-election Attacks On the Hdpmentioning

confidence: 99%