The Overconfidence Problem in Insurance Markets

Sandroni, Alvaro; Squintani, Francesco

doi:10.2139/ssrn.653002

Cited by 9 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…This indicates either for overestimation [ 17 ] (with de facto missing knowledge) for the whole competency, or relevant deficits in attitude. Nevertheless, these results confirm prior findings of our working groups in a regional [ 12 ] and national [ 13 ] post-graduate settings and further results in medical [ 20 – 22 ] and non-medical [ 14 , 15 , 29 ] context.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

“…It is likely, that overconfidence is acquired in this time prior to regular patient contact. Consequently, a governmental structured pre-academic traineeship using reflective methods, known to potentially lower overconfidence [ 29 , 30 ], and focusing on hand hygiene and feedback may be indicated.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To compensate, we used the completer/non-completer approach [ 24 ], a comparison to our preexisting studies [ 12 , 13 ] and we investigated external literature [ 17 , 29 ]. Following findings and arguments lower the selection bias (without ruling in out) and the counter-hypothesis, that motivated participants are de facto better in their competences:…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Speaking up behavior and cognitive bias in hand hygiene: Competences of German-speaking medical students

Dettenkofer¹,

Sippel

Koenig

et al. 2020

PLoS ONE

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Introduction Infection prevention and speaking up on errors are core qualities of health care providers. Heuristic effects (e.g. overconfidence) may impair behavior in daily routine, while speaking up can be inhibited by hierarchical barriers and medical team factors. Aim of this investigation was to determine, how medical students experience these difficulties for hand hygiene in daily routine. Methods On the base of prior investigations we developed a questionnaire with 5-point Likert ordinal scaled items and free text entries. This was tested for validity and reliability (Cronbach's Alpha 0.89). Accredited German, Swiss and Austrian universities were contacted and medical students asked to participated in the anonymous online survey. Quantitative statistics used parametric and non-parametric tests and effect size calculations according to Lakens. Qualitative data was coded according to Janesick. Results 1042 undergraduates of 12 universities participated. All rated their capabilities in hand hygiene and feedback reception higher than those of fellow students, nurses and physicians (p<0.001). Half of the participants rating themselves to be best educated, realized that faulty hand hygiene can be of lethal effect. Findings were independent from age, sex, academic course and university. Speaking-up in case of omitted hand hygiene was rated to be done seldomly and most rare on persons of higher hierarchic levels. Qualitative results of 164

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Speaking up behavior and cognitive bias in hand hygiene: Competences of German-speaking medical students

Dettenkofer¹,

Sippel

Koenig

et al. 2020

PLoS ONE

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“…For example, there is evidence that investors' overconfidence lowers their investment performance (Park et al, 2010) and that overconfidence of managers has adverse effects on organizational performance and may harm a company's value (Çitçi and İnci, 2016;Hayward and Hambrick, 1997;Malmendier and Tate, 2008;). Overconfidence is one of the most important reasons for the poor performance of drivers and therefore danger in terms of traffic safety (Hatakka et al, 2002;Sandroni and Squintani, 2004).…”

Section: Overconfidence In Students and Feedbackmentioning

confidence: 99%

Overconfidence and its link with feedback

Erat

Demirkol

SALLABAŞ

2020

Active Learning in Higher Education

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Feedback is crucial in every step of education, and we provide feedback to students in order to help them to either understand or improve their performance if they wish to improve their skills and abilities. However, how or whether they can benefit depends on their response to that feedback. Thus, when they receive feedback, they ought to be receptive because either too much or too little confidence influences their perceptions of their own performance. The study described in this article looks at overconfidence, and whether or not this evolves over time, that is, with more experience and also whether providing feedback to students can improve their own assessment of their own skills and abilities. A two-stage experiment was conducted, measuring the actual performance of students taking a course, at two points within it. After the examination that students took, we collected how students had assessed themselves and the degree of confidence that they had. Later, we provided feedback to students about their actual performance. In the second stage, we again measured their actual and self-estimated performance. The aim was to find out whether the feedback provided to students improved their assessment of their own performance and whether or not there had been a change in the level of their confidence. The results shed light on whether or not confidence, in particular, overconfidence, changes over time, in response to the feedback provided, and whether the provision of feedback is an effective policy when it comes to reducing overconfidence.

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“…This point is the most critical. In fact, anecdotal evidence exists on the role of overconfidence in determining errors that, in turn, lead to accidents in many fields (Atkins, 2000; Sandroni & Squintani, 2004; Shappell & Wiegmann, 1997). Agriculture is no exception, and overconfidence has been reported as leading to serious errors and disastrous outcomes in this sector (Nuthall, 2009).…”

Section: Mitigating Risk Through Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

Attentional Control in Accidents Involving Agricultural Tractor Operators

Nocera¹,

Ricciardi²,

Longo³

et al. 2017

Ergonomics in Design

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Feature at a glance: Although a lack of safety features is often reported as the most important factor in tractor accidents, an accident per se is the outcome of many elements, including the amount of attentional control operators exert over the driving task. The lack of active attentional control is sometimes referred as “absentmindedness,” and many studies have investigated this phenomenon as the expression of individual differences. The present retrospective study represents a first attempt at investigating the relation between lack of attention and tractor accidents in a large sample of operators. The results show that attentional control is involved in tractor accidents, which can be taken as evidence of habit effects in operating agricultural machinery: Lower attentional control is required in routine actions, which makes expert operators more exposed to the possibility of making (skill-based) errors. This finding leads to suggestions for the design of future systems.

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The Overconfidence Problem in Insurance Markets

Cited by 9 publications

References 55 publications

Speaking up behavior and cognitive bias in hand hygiene: Competences of German-speaking medical students

Speaking up behavior and cognitive bias in hand hygiene: Competences of German-speaking medical students

Overconfidence and its link with feedback

Attentional Control in Accidents Involving Agricultural Tractor Operators

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