The Optimal Path for China to Achieve the “Dual Carbon” Target from the Perspective of Energy Structure Optimization

Abstract

Exploring the path of energy structure optimization to reduce carbon emissions and achieve a carbon peak has important policy implications for achieving the “Dual Carbon” target. To this end, this paper explores the optimal path for China to achieve the “dual carbon” target from the perspective of energy structure optimization in three steps: (1) we forecast China’s carbon emissions and carbon intensity during 2024–2035 based on a combined forecasting model; (2) we simulate the development of energy consumption and carbon emissions under the “economic development scenario-energy structure scenario” with the help of Markov chain forecasting model; (3) we construct a multi-attribute decision model to account for the above elements as variables to calculate a composite index to analyze the optimal path for China to achieve “Dual Carbon” target under different decision preferences. It is found that (1) potential negative effects caused by COVID-19 are not as serious as reported; (2) only the scenario with low-speed economic growth and effective policies guiding, which doesn’t follow laws of social development, can contribute to reaching carbon peaking by 2030 while maintaining a high-quality carbon intensity; (3) the optimal path that scenario with middle-speed economic growth and strict cost control is a sub-optimal choice subject to realities; (4) technologies innovations in green or low-carbon fields are needed to accelerate energy consumption structure optimization.

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“…First, focuse on the impact of energy structure transition on the ecological environment. Wang Yong et al (2019) pointed out that the global ecological environment is experiencing profound changes as traditional fossil energy is gradually replaced by renewable energy [6]. This transition has significantly reduced greenhouse gas emissions and played a key role in mitigating global climate change.…”

“…Model (5) shows that digitization has a significant role in promoting technological innovation, and at the 1% significance level, every 1% increase in digitization level will increase technological innovation capacity by 2.711%. Model (6) shows that digitization has a significant role in promoting the optimization of provincial household energy structure, and model ( 7) adds the intermediary variable technological innovation on the basis of model ( 6), the coefficient of influence of industrial digitization on the optimization of energy structure decreases and is significant, which indicates that technological innovation plays a partly intermediary role in the optimization of the structural change of digitization and energy use, and its intermediary effect accounts for 28.05% of the total effect. 28.05% of the total effect.…”

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“…Their research indicates promising opportunities for China to attain its carbon peak within the window of 2028–2030, with carbon neutrality achievable by 2060 under a neutral scenario—contingent upon renewable energy constituting over 80 % of the energy mix, an urbanization rate reaching 85 %, and energy consumption being restricted to within 6.5 billion tons [ 6 ]. Jiang Q (2023) posits that with the synergistic effect of dampened economic growth and policy orientation, it is feasible for China to peak its carbon emissions before 2030, all the while sustaining a comparatively elevated level of carbon intensity and circumventing complete adherence to traditional societal development paradigms [ 7 ]. The large-scale deployment of wind energy is identified as one of the primary conduits to meet China's objectives of carbon peaking and neutrality.…”

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“…"Double carbon" is a strategy responding to the problems of rapid global climate change, energy scarcity and ecological and environmental damage, including efforts to reduce the consumption of fossil energy and vigorously develop new types of clean energy [1][2][3]. Carbon dioxide emissions are on track to peak by 2030, and work is currently underway towards achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 [4].…”