The Offset Position Prediction of Light Buoy Based on Grey Optimization Multiplicative Seasonal Model

Abstract

Light buoy is a navigation aid sign to guide ship navigation, which plays an important role in ensuring the safety of ship navigation. To predict the offset distance of light buoy and provide accurate position information of light buoy for ship navigation safety, and to solve the problem of low prediction accuracy caused by the excessive amplitude of initial training data in the traditional multiplicative seasonal model, a grey optimization multiplicative seasonal model is proposed. By analyzing the characteristics of the time series of the light buoy offset data, as well as the regularity and seasonal characteristics of the light buoy offset distance, an optimization model is established. Based on the real offset distance data of the 1 # light buoy in Meizhou Bay, the model is simulated, and the prediction accuracy of the model is evaluated by MAPE, RMSE, and the Monte Carlo sampling method. The results show that, compared to the traditional multiplicative seasonal model, the average absolute percentage error of the grey optimization multiplicative seasonal model is reduced by 6.66%, and the root mean square error is reduced by 2.96. It shows that the model can effectively deal with the problem that the error of the prediction results caused by the instability of the initial time series of the traditional multiplicative seasonal model is too large, which provides a new idea for the prediction of the offset distance of the light buoy and the navigation safety of the ship.