The odd one out: The influence of ideological positioning on individual electoral success

Abstract

Within many countries, voters not only have to cast a vote for a political party, but also have the option to select (a) candidate(s) within that party, a so-called preferential vote. Recent studies indicate that several factors influence the success of candidates within this intra-party competition, such as ballot list position, political experience, and socio-demographic characteristics. However, it has not yet been investigated whether ideology also matters for intra-party success. This study investigates the role of the ideological position of candidates within their party on the share of preferential votes they obtain. Can candidates win preferential votes by taking ideological niche positions within the party? To investigate this question, the study uses data from a candidate survey conducted during the 2014 Belgian elections in which candidates were asked to position themselves ideologically. The results of this study indicate that ideology does not play a strong role within the intra-party competition.

The impact of ideological positions and personal attributes of candidates in intraparty competition: A study under the Swiss open‐list PR System

“…However, the literature on voting behaviour suggests that the two strategies are not equally effective. It outlines that the ideological positioning of candidates on a party list may be less relevant than their personal attributes (Isotalo et al, 2020; von Schoultz & Papageorgiou, 2021) or not relevant at all for their electoral success (van Erkel, 2021). These studies are based on the assumption that open‐list PR systems are complex electoral settings (Brockington, 2003; Valdini, 2012, 2013; Marcinkiewicz & Stegmaier, 2015; Mustillo & Polga‐Hecimovich, 2020; Muraoka, 2021).…”

“…In open‐list PR systems, is it more promising for individual candidates to position themselves ideologically closer to their party's median position or to deviate from it? The scarce literature on how candidates' policy positions affect their success in intraparty competition suggests that a deviating ideological position could have either a positive effect on their number of preference votes or a negative impact on candidates' electoral outcomes (Katz, 1980; Isotalo et al, 2020; van Erkel, 2021; von Schoultz & Papageorgiou, 2021). In open‐list PR systems, candidates must differentiate themselves from their co‐partisans to be elected.…”

“…Nevertheless, looking into the role of ideology is important to better understand what explains the electoral success of individual candidates in intraparty competition. It also sheds light on how citizens use preferential voting (van Erkel, 2021).…”

“…Three recent works (Isotalo et al, 2020; van Erkel, 2021; von Schoultz & Papageorgiou, 2021) have analysed the effect of candidates' political stances on their preference vote share. However, they obtain contrasting results.…”

“…The findings indicate that the direction of candidates' ideological distancing matters, but only for candidates within centre, right‐wing, and traditional, authoritarian, nationalist parties. On the other hand, the study by van Erkel (2021), based on the Belgian flexible list‐PR system, finds that candidates' ideological positions with respect to their party line has no effect on the number of preference votes candidates receive.…”