The Occurrence of Extreme Monthly Temperatures and Precipitation in Two Global Regions

Nunes, Max J.; Lupo, Anthony R.; Lebedeva, Maria G.; Chendev, Yu. G.; Solovyov, Alexandr B.

doi:10.1080/23754931.2017.1286253

Cited by 16 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…The lack of significance for monthly precipitation anomalies might be expected as these can be influenced by more localized factors as well as large-scale flow regimes. In general, the occurrence of Pacific Region blocking correlated with cooler conditions in the Midwest as shown in some previous studies [27,29,30], and this is especially marked in the cold season [30].…”

Section: 2mentioning

confidence: 55%

“…However, what is new is that Section 4 demonstrates that there may be utility in making forecasts for the continental USA in the two-to-four-week time frame using the PNA index as well as the BSRI and EARI especially for anomalous events. As shown in Section 3, the PNA and WPO centers of action (derived from the 500 hPa height field) showed a high correlation to Midwestern monthly temperatures similar to [29][30][31][32]. However, [18] demonstrated that the PNA centers of action are not always located in the same regions defined by [17] and more than four centers of action can be present.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The well-known PNA index [17] ∘ W) for the BSR. These locations are close to the two positively correlating centers of the PNA index above, and the 500 hPa heights would be related to each other and to surface conditions as described in Section 2.2 (e.g., [17,18,[29][30][31][32]). Thus, we propose a BSR Index (BSRI) as…”

Section: The Bsr and Ear Formulaementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Blocking can have a substantial impact on the conditions over a region for an entire month or even a season as many researchers have demonstrated (e.g., [22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30]). Blocking in the East Pacific Ocean Basin is generally associated with a trough over the middle part of the USA (e.g., [22,30]), and a dramatic recent example occurred during November 2014 to be studied here. Also, [31,32] demonstrated the influence of sea surface temperatures associated with El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the predominant temperature and precipitation regimes of the central USA.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting

Renken

Herman²,

Bradshaw

et al. 2017

Advances in Meteorology

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the utility of the Bering Sea Rule (BSR) and the East Asia Rule (EAR) for making forecasts in the two-to-four-week time frame for the central USA region is examined. It is demonstrated using autocorrelation and Fourier transforms that there may be a degree of predictability in this time frame using the PNA, another teleconnection index, or some variation of them. Neither the BSR nor EAR based forecasts showed skill over climatology in the traditional sense, but using signal detection techniques these indexes were skillful at predicting the onset of anomalous temperature conditions (greater than two standard deviations) in the central USA. The BSR generally produced better results that the EAR and formulae for each index are proposed. Three case studies demonstrate the efficacy of these indexes for forecasting temperatures in the central USA. Then, it is proposed that the success of these indexes is likely due to a strong, quasistationary, and persistent Rossby wave train in the Pacific teleconnection region.

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Section: 2mentioning

confidence: 55%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Bsr and Ear Formulaementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting

Renken

Herman²,

Bradshaw

et al. 2017

Advances in Meteorology

Self Cite

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show abstract

“…It has been examined by researchers using different approaches (dynamic, climatological) and including, not only the regional effects, but also remote impacts. These studies focus on the climatological features of atmospheric blocking (Lupo and Smith, ; Tibaldi et al ., ; Wiedenmann et al ., ; Barriopedro et al ., ; Cheung et al ., ; Dunn‐Sigouin et al ., ), the algorithms for detecting blocking or defining its characteristics (Lejenäs and Økland, ; Tibaldi and Molteni, [ hereafter TM90 ]; Lupo and Smith, ; Barriopedro et al ., ), the predictability of atmospheric blocking (TM90; Pavan et al ., ; Jensen et al ., ) or the influence of blocking on climatological variables (Antokhina et al ., ; Whan et al ., ; Nunes et al ., ; Sitnov et al ., ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The relationship between atmospheric blocking and temperature anomalies in Turkey between 1977 and 2016

Efe

Sezen

Lupo

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The relationship between the character of atmospheric blocking and surface temperature has not been studied in depth for Turkey. Here, these relationships are investigated for the period 1977–2016. The seasonal mean temperature anomalies for all stations during blocked days varies between −2.1 and 0.8°C. There are four main patterns representing the mean seasonal temperature anomalies for all stations during blocked and non‐blocked days. The annual cycle for each group is nearly opposite, and this indicates the impact of blocking on observed temperature, as blocked days comprised 30% of the study period. When focusing on the spatial distribution of mean seasonal anomalies, the winter and fall seasons show that, almost all stations have negative temperature anomalies although anomalies are close to zero during warm seasons (spring and summer). The composite analysis shows that the western part of the country is strongly affected by cold air advection during upstream blocking events and the eastern part of the country is affected by warm temperature advection for downstream blocking events. There is a statistically significant (95% confidence level) negative correlation between blocking intensity and temperature anomalies in all seasons except spring. There is no relationship between both blocking duration and longitudinal extent and the seasonal mean temperature anomaly except during winter, which has a significant negative correlation. The temperature anomaly distribution stratified by season shows that strong positive anomalies are rarely observed in all seasons. Only winter and spring were associated with very strong positive anomalies and only at a few stations. Rex‐type atmospheric blocking events are observed during the period of not only the maximum temperature anomaly but also for minimum anomalies. However, the location of the blocking event differed from the typical situation above, with the cold and warm events being located downstream and upstream of Turkey, respectively.

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Using the daily change in the Southern Oscillation Index to develop analogues and the relationship to severe weather outbreaks

Renken

Brown

Kennedy

et al. 2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The occurrence of severe weather is an annual problem for much of the United States and North America and maximizes from March through June.With the increased interest in subseasonal weather forecasting, there have been attempts to anticipate the occurrence of anomalous weather on the timescale of one to 4 weeks including the occurrence of severe weather. Previous research has shown that teleconnection indices, associated with long period Rossby wave activity, or persistent large-scale flow regimes have been useful tools in this endeavour. Here, abrupt changes over a 24-72-hr period (10 or more units per day or 20 or more units over 3 days) in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) time series will be used to demonstrate that these changes can be associated with the possible occurrence of major severe weather event-days defined as; 20 or more tornado, 155 or more wind speed events >25.9 mÁs −1 , or 135 or more hail diameter larger than 25.4 mm, reports over the United States one to 3 weeks in advance, especially during the March through June period.The severe weather events obtained from the archive at the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) from 1991 through 2020 were used. The results here demonstrate that more than 7 in 10 major severe weather occurrences were associated with abrupt positive and negative changes in the daily SOI when using signal detection methods.

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The Occurrence of Extreme Monthly Temperatures and Precipitation in Two Global Regions

Cited by 16 publications

References 20 publications

The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting

The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting

The relationship between atmospheric blocking and temperature anomalies in Turkey between 1977 and 2016

Using the daily change in the Southern Oscillation Index to develop analogues and the relationship to severe weather outbreaks

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