The Nottingham Hip Fracture Score as a predictor of early discharge following fractured neck of femur

Moppett, I. K.; Wiles, M. D.; Moran, Chris; Sahota, O.

doi:10.1093/ageing/afs092

Cited by 21 publications

(35 citation statements)

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“…This is the first independent validation of the NHFS, and supports the results of previous studies by the originating centre. 12,[14][15][16] The findings of this study suggest that the NHFS is a useful tool for clinicians managing these complex patients on a day-to-day basis.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 83%

“…The NHFS, as it was first devised, has been demonstrated to predict 30-day and one-year mortality as well as time to discharge from hospital to home in studies of patients from the originating unit. 12,14,15 However, a validation exercise, performed using data from large teaching hospitals in the south of England, identified problems which led to a change in the method by which the NHFS is calculated. 16 Despite the developer's request, 16 no further validation work has occurred and, as such, the modified NHFS has not been validated in a setting independently of the developing group.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Independent validation of the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score and identification of regional variation in patient risk within England

Rushton

Reed

Pratt

2015

The Bone & Joint Journal

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The Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) was developed to assess the risk of death following a fracture of the hip, based on pre-operative patient characteristics. We performed an independent validation of the NHFS, assessed the degree of geographical variation that exists between different units within the United Kingdom and attempted to define a NHFS level that is associated with high risk of mortality. The NHFS was calculated retrospectively for consecutive patients presenting with a fracture of the hip to two hospitals in England. The observed 30-day mortality for each NHFS cohort was compared with that predicted by the NHFS using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The distribution of NHFS in the observed group was compared with data from other hospitals in the United Kingdom. The proportion of patients identified as high risk and the mortality within the high risk group were assessed for groups defined using different thresholds for the NHFS. In all 1079 hip fractures were included in the analysis, with a mean age of 83 years (60 to 105), 284 (26%) male. Overall 30-day mortality was 7.3%. The NHFS was a significant predictor of 30-day mortality. Statistically significant differences in the distribution of the NHFS were present between different units in England (p < 0.001). A NHFS ≥ 6 appears to be an appropriate cut-point to identify patients at high risk of mortality following a fracture of the hip.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 83%

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confidence: 99%

Independent validation of the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score and identification of regional variation in patient risk within England

Rushton

Reed

Pratt

2015

The Bone & Joint Journal

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“…It has been validated in a different hospital, albeit by the initial developers in the same paper, where it showed good discriminative power for in-hospital mortality (AUC = 0.82) as well as for 1 year mortality (AUC = 0.74) [18]. [22,23]. In a more recent study, multicentre validation of the NHFS using data of 7290 patients has resulted in recalibration to adjust for overestimation in high risk groups [20].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting 30-day mortality following hip fracture surgery: Evaluation of six risk prediction models

Karres

Heesakkers

Ultee

et al. 2015

Injury

141

124

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“…The Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) accurately predicts 30‐day and one‐year postoperative mortality and the likelihood of early discharge after hip fracture surgery. It has been validated and recalibrated using audit data from other hospitals in England and has been used for risk adjustment of outcomes associated with mode of anaesthesia .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of 30-day mortality after hip fracture surgery by the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score and the Surgical Outcome Risk Tool

et al. 2016

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SummaryThe care of the elderly with hip fractures and their outcomes might be improved with resources targeted by the accurate calculation of risks of mortality and morbidity. We used a multicentre national dataset to evaluate and recalibrate the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score and Surgical Outcome Risk Tool. We split 9,017 hip fracture cases from the Anaesthesia Sprint Audit of Practice into derivation and validation data sets and used logistic regression to derive new model co-efficients for death at 30 postoperative days. The area (95% CI) under the receiver operator characteristic curve of 0.71 (0.67-0.75) indicated acceptable discrimination by the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score and acceptable calibration fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow test), p = 0.23, with a similar discrimination by the Surgical Outcome Risk Tool, 0.70 (0.66-0.74), which was miscalibrated to the observed data, p = 0.001. We recommend that studies test these scores for patients with hip fractures in other countries. We also recommend these models are compared with case-mix adjustment tools used in the UK.

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The Nottingham Hip Fracture Score as a predictor of early discharge following fractured neck of femur

Cited by 21 publications

References 0 publications

Independent validation of the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score and identification of regional variation in patient risk within England

Independent validation of the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score and identification of regional variation in patient risk within England

Predicting 30-day mortality following hip fracture surgery: Evaluation of six risk prediction models

Prediction of 30-day mortality after hip fracture surgery by the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score and the Surgical Outcome Risk Tool

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