The Northern Caspian Sea: Consequences of climate change for level fluctuations during the Holocene

Bezrodnykh, Yu. P.; Yanina, Т.А.; Сорокин, В.М.; Romanyuk, B. F.

doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2019.01.041

Cited by 14 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…The Caspian Sea (CS) is the world's largest inland sea, sited within a vast endorheic catchment area (3.6 Mkm 2 ) that is fed by 130 rivers (Rodionov, 1994). Currently, >80% of inflow contribution is from the Over the Quaternary period, the CS experienced extreme water-level changes ranging from approximately +50 m to −90 m between transgressive and regressive periods, and variations of >3 m during the last century (Arpe & Leroy, 2007;Arslanov et al, 2016;Bezrodnykh et al, 2020;Forte & Cowgill, 2013;Kakroodi et al, 2014Kakroodi et al, , 2015Kislov et al, 2014;Krijgsman et al, 2019;Kroonenberg et al, 2008;Leroy et al, 2020;Naderi-Beni et al, 2013;Yanina et al, 2020;Yanina, 2014). Such large variations in water level have substantial impacts on the change in CS surface area (Figure 1).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Variations in Caspian Sea Surface Area on Catchment‐Scale and Large‐Scale Climate

et al. 2021

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The Caspian Sea (CS) is the largest inland lake in the world. Large variations in sea level and surface area occurred in the past and are projected for the future. The potential impacts on regional and large-scale hydroclimate are not well understood. Here, we examine the impact of CS area on climate within its catchment and across the northern hemisphere, for the first time with a fully coupled climate model. The Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2.2) is used to simulate the climate of four scenarios: (a) larger than present CS area, (b) current area, (c) smaller than present area, and (d) no-CS scenario. The results reveal large changes in the regional atmospheric water budget. Evaporation (e) over the sea increases with increasing area, while precipitation (P) increases over the south-west CS with increasing area. P-E over the CS catchment decreases as CS surface area increases, indicating a dominant negative lake-evaporation feedback. A larger CS reduces summer surface air temperatures and increases winter temperatures. The impacts extend eastwards, where summer precipitation is enhanced over central Asia and the north-western Pacific experiences warming with reduced winter sea ice. Our results also indicate weakening of the 500-hPa troughs over the northern Pacific with larger CS area. We find a thermal response triggers a southward shift of the upper troposphere jet stream during summer. Our findings establish that changing CS area results in climate impacts of such scope that CS area variations should be incorporated into climate model simulations, including palaeo and future scenarios. Plain Language SummaryThe Caspian Sea is the largest land-locked water body in the world. It is filled by rivers draining a vast region from northern Russia to Iran. The size of the Caspian Sea has varied considerably over recent centuries and millennia due to various factors, including changes in climate. Conversely, as the area of the sea changes it also has impacts on the climate, but there are significant questions about how and where those impacts would be felt. In this study we used a stateof-the-art climate model in which we specified different sizes of Caspian Sea in order to examine how the climate changes as its area increases. We observed that the local seasonal cycle of temperatures gets smaller, and evaporation increases, while there are more spatially complex changes in local rainfall. Furthermore, the impacts on atmospheric circulation occur as far as the north Pacific, with resulting increases in temperature and decreases in sea-ice coverage in winter as the Caspian area increases. The climate impacts are so significant and geographically extensive that climate models used to simulate climate change (both in future and past scenarios) should incorporate changes to the Caspian Sea area if they are to robustly model regional climate. KORICHE ET AL.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Variations in Caspian Sea Surface Area on Catchment‐Scale and Large‐Scale Climate

et al. 2021

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“…4f ). However, a drier climate may have prevailed in the lower basins of western Asia due to the inferred strong evaporation during the HTM; for example, a lake regressive phase is documented during ~5.6–3.7 kyr, shown by a 5–15 m reduction in the water level of the Caspian Sea 53 , and the occurrence of a ~ 600-yr megadrought between ~5.8 and ~5.2 kyr in Kyrgyzstan 54 . Consequently, the Yamnaya Culture (~5.5–4.5 kyr), originating in the Pontic–Caspian region, may have migrated north-eastwards into the Afanaseivo enclave near the Altai at ~5 kyr, sharing genetic and cultural characteristics 1 .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prehistoric population expansion in Central Asia promoted by the Altai Holocene Climatic Optimum

et al. 2023

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How climate change in the middle to late Holocene has influenced the early human migrations in Central Asian Steppe remains poorly understood. To address this issue, we reconstructed a multiproxy-based Holocene climate history from the sediments of Kanas Lake and neighboring Tiewaike Lake in the southern Altai Mountains. The results show an exceptionally warm climate during ~6.5–3.6 kyr is indicated by the silicon isotope composition of diatom silica (δ30Sidiatom) and the biogenic silica (BSi) content. During 4.7-4.3 kyr, a peak in δ30Sidiatom reflects enhanced lake thermal stratification and periodic nutrient limitation as indicated by concomitant decreasing BSi content. Our geochemical results indicate a significantly warm and wet climate in the Altai Mountain region during 6.5–3.6 kyr, corresponding to the Altai Holocene Climatic Optimum (AHCO), which is critical for promoting prehistoric human population expansion and intensified cultural exchanges across the Central Asian steppe during the Bronze Age.

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“…Based on the extracted wind speed contour lines from the studies by Rusu et al [29] in the northern part of the Caspian Sea, it was possible to observe the mean wind speed in the range of 6-7 m/sand maximum wind speed in the range of 18-21 m/s during the winter period of January 2001-December 2011 (Figure 2c,d). As mentioned before, winds control the formation of currents with an approximate speed of several centimeters per second to 100 cm/s [30].…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 86%

“…Based on the extracted wave height contour lines from the studies by Myslenkov et al [31], it was possible to observe the mean wave height in the range of 0.2-0.5 m and maximum wave height in the range of 2-4.5 m/s during 1979-2017 (Figure 2e,f). According to Bezrodnykh et al [30], no high waves are observed in the Northern Caspian Sea due to its shallowness and ice cover during the winter period.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Remote Surveillance of Differential Deformation for Kazakhstan Offshore Kashagan Oilfield Using Microwave Satellite Remote Sensing

Bayramov,

Tessari,

Kada

et al. 2023

Remote Sensing

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The primary objective of this study was to assess differential vertical and horizontal deformations for the offshore Kashagan oilfield located in the Northern Caspian Sea. Sentinel-1 (SNT1) and COSMO-SkyMed (CSK) synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) images (9 January 2018–6 April 2022) were processed using persistent scatterer interferometric SAR (PS-InSAR) technique with further 2D decomposition of line-of-sight (LOS) measurements to differential vertical and horizontal deformations. Differential vertical deformation velocity was observed to be between −4 mm/y and 4 mm/y, whereas horizontal was between −4 mm/y and 5 mm/y during 2018–2022. However, it was possible to observe the spatial deformation patterns with the subsidence hotspots reaching differential cumulative vertical displacement of −20 mm from both satellite missions. PS-InSAR differential vertical deformation measurements derived from SNT1 and CSK satellite images showed identical spatial patterns with moderate agreement, whereas poor agreement was observed for differential horizontal deformations. The differential vertical deformation hotspots were observed for the oilfield areas installed on piles with obviously higher vulnerability to dynamic movements. Through this study, based on the interferometric measurements, marine geotechnical expert feedback, and no reported deformation-related incidents since 2013, it was possible to conclude that the Kashagan oilfield had not been impacted by significant differential vertical and horizontal deformations on the oilfield. However, since long-term GPS measurements were not accessible from the oilfield to be used as the reference for PS-InSAR measurements, we were not able to judge the long-term displacements of the entire oilfield or possible oscillations, even though it is built on the artificial island. Considering the broad range of PS-InSAR measurements using time-series radar images, the interferometric measurements could play a significant role in the prioritization of insitu risk assessment activities, operational cost reduction, strengthening of safety factors, and planning of further targeted insitu measurements.

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The Northern Caspian Sea: Consequences of climate change for level fluctuations during the Holocene

Cited by 14 publications

References 26 publications

Impacts of Variations in Caspian Sea Surface Area on Catchment‐Scale and Large‐Scale Climate

Impacts of Variations in Caspian Sea Surface Area on Catchment‐Scale and Large‐Scale Climate

Prehistoric population expansion in Central Asia promoted by the Altai Holocene Climatic Optimum

Remote Surveillance of Differential Deformation for Kazakhstan Offshore Kashagan Oilfield Using Microwave Satellite Remote Sensing

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