The North Caucasus: Factor Analysis and Forecasts of the Regional Situation Dynamics

Abstract

Introduction. By the beginning of the third decade of the 21st century approaches to assessments and forecasts of the situation in the North Caucasus have changed in the doctrinal documents of the Russian Federation, the region is no longer interpreted as requiring priority attention of the state. The article sets out the task of analyzing the controversial results of the development of the North Caucasian Federal District and on the basis of this analysis to make a forecast for the development of the ethnopolitical situation in the North Caucasus until the middle of the current decade. Materials and Methods. The section identifies the sources of the empirical base, the main of which are the official data of Rosstat. The combination of quantitative (analysis of official documents) and qualitative (discourse analysis) research methods has expanded the possibilities of analyzing the obtained data and ensures the reliability of the results. Results. It is asserted that most of the factors of aggravation of the regional situation at the turn of the first and second decades of the 21st century continue to produce risks in the third decade. Palliative improvements in the economy and other areas of the North Caucasian community are shown. However, the main targets set out at the moment of the creation of the North Caucasian Federal District in 2010 have not been achieved. At the same time, economic problems do not have a significant destabilizing effect on ethnopolitical processes, the greatest risks are concentrated in the institutional sphere. Discussion and Conclusion. The conclusion is made about the possibility of maintaining a moderate conflictological scenario for the development of the regional situation until the middle of the third decade of the 21st century. Further clarification of conflictological scenarios should be carried out taking into account the unfolding “hybrid war”, in the context of which the problems of ethnic relations should once again become the object of special attention of the state; it is important to restore at the doctrinal level the status of the North Caucasus as a region of priority importance for the security of the state. The conclusions made in the article may be of interest to practical politicians, including the development and adjustment of regional strategies and concepts of national policy.