The nonlinear effect of macroeconomic and financial uncertainty on regional housing prices in the USA

Chien, Mei-Se; Setyowati, Nur; Liu, Shubing

doi:10.1007/s10901-022-10003-z

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 31 publications

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“…Especially following the subprime mortgage crisis between 2007 and 2010, a few scholarly works attempted to explain the role of uncertainty in the residential property space (Antonakakis et al, 2015;Baldini and Poggio, 2014). Generally, these studies report an inverse relationship between uncertainty and housing market returns (Anastasiou et al, 2021;Chien et al, 2022). A time-varying analysis of this relationship by Christou et al (2019) also suggests that the relationship is stronger following the structural changes caused by the GFC of 2007.…”

Section: 7mentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic uncertainty and direct property performance: a systematic review using the SPAR-4-SLR protocol

Ahiadu,

Abidoye

2023

JPIF

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PurposeThis study systematically reviewed existing literature on the impact of economic uncertainty on property performance to highlight focus areas and spur future research amid unprecedented global uncertainty levels. Conceptually, uncertainty levels and environmental dynamism are related to investors' risk judgement and decision-making.Design/methodology/approachPeer-reviewed journal articles published from 2007 to 2022 were assembled and arranged through the Scientific Procedures and Rationales for Systematic Literature Reviews (SPAR-4-SLR) protocol. The initial search produced 2,028 results from the Web of Science and Scopus databases, which were rigorously purified for a final dataset of 70 articles. These records were subsequently assessed through content analysis, bibliographic modelling, topic modelling and thematic analysis. Recurring themes were visualised using the VOSviewer software.FindingsThe existing literature suggests that economic uncertainty negatively impacts investment volumes, returns and performance. Research has also increased since 2018, with a strong emphasis on the housing sector and developed property markets. Commercial property and emerging markets account for only 10 and 8% of previous research, respectively.Practical implicationsThese findings highlight the negative impact of economic uncertainties on property performance and investment volumes, which necessitate careful risk assessment. Given the high susceptibility of emerging and commercial property markets to uncertainty, these markets warrant further research amid ongoing uncertainty concerns across the globe.Originality/valueGiven current unprecedented levels of global uncertainty, the effects of economic uncertainty have received renewed interest. This study synthesised the current understanding of how different property markets respond to increased uncertainty and outlined future research directions to enhance understanding. Themes and relationships were also integrated into a conceptual map summarising the reported effects of economic uncertainty on housing, commercial property, investment and behaviour in the property market.

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