The New Policy for Innovative Transformation in Regional Industrial Chains, the Conversion of New and Old Kinetic Energy, and Energy Poverty Alleviation

Abstract

As the world’s largest emerging market country, not only has China faced the contradiction between its huge population size and per capita energy scarcity for a long time, but the rigid constraints brought by energy poverty have also plagued the lives and production of Chinese residents. Based on panel data from 30 provinces (except Tibet) in mainland China from 2009 to 2021, this study employs double machine learning and spatial difference-in-difference for causal inference to explore the impact of a medium- to long-term regional innovation pilot policy in China—the new policy for innovative transformation in regional industrial chains—on energy poverty alleviation. This study also introduces China’s conversion of new and old kinetic energy into this quasi-natural experiment. This study presents the following findings: (1) The new policy for innovative transformation in regional industrial chains and the concept of the conversion of new and old kinetic energy can both significantly promote energy poverty alleviation. (2) The mechanism pathway of “the new policy for innovative transformation in regional industrial chains → the conversion of new and old kinetic energy → the energy poverty alleviation in heating/household electricity/transportation segments” has proved to be an effective practice in China. (3) Based on the spatial double difference model, the spatial direct effect of the new regional industrial chain innovation and change policy on energy poverty alleviation is significantly positive, while the spatial direct effect and spatial spillover effect of the new and old kinetic energy transformation on energy poverty alleviation are both significantly positive. (4) Based on the counterfactual framework analysis, in addition to the causal mediating mechanism of the demand-side conversion of new and old kinetic energy being impeded, both the supply-side and the structural-side conversion of new and old kinetic energy are able to play a significant positive causal mediating role in both the treatment and control groups.