The need for national deep decarbonization pathways for effective climate policy

Abstract

Restraining global average temperatures to +2°C from pre-industrial levels will likely require halving global energy system emissions by 2050, and decarbonization by 2100 (IPCC 2014). In the nationally orientated climate policy framework codified under the Paris Agreement, each nation must decide the scale and method of their emissions reduction contribution while remaining consistent with the global carbon budget. This policy process will require engagement amongst a wide range of stakeholders who have very different visions for the physical implementation of deep decarbonization. The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP) has developed a methodology, building on the energy, climate, and economics literatures, to structure these debates based on the following principles: i) country scale analysis to capture specific physical, economic, and political circumstances to maximize policy relevence, ii) a long-term perspective to harmonize shortterm decisions with the long term objective, and iii) detailed sectoral analysis with transparent representation of emissions drivers through a common accounting framework. These principles are operationalized in the definition of Deep Decarbonization Pathways (DDPs), which involve technically detailed, sector by sector maps of each country's decarbonization transition, backcasting feasible pathways from 2050 end points. This paper shows how the current 16 DDPP country teams, covering 74% of global energy system emissions, used this method to collectively restrain emissions to a level consistent with +2°C while maintaining development aspirations and reflecting national circumstances, mainly through efficiency, decarbonization of energy carriers (e.g. electricity), and switching to these carriers. The cross-cutting analysis of country scenarios reveals important enabling conditions for the transformation, pertaining to technology R&D, investment, trade and global and national policies.

Tracking sectoral progress in the deep decarbonisation of energy systems in Europe

“…A significant contribution in this regard is ( Bataille et al, 2016b). This paper focuses on a number of uses of decarbonisation pathways, including as a tool for structuring national policy formulation, building stakeholder consensus, and for revealing enabling conditions to make pathways a reality.…”

On metrics and financing for the Sustainable Development Goals

“…This conclusion is broadly supported by other authors (IEA, 2012), but a number of national deep decarbonization pathways (Williams et al, , 2014SDSN and IDDRI, 2015;Bataille et al, 2016) project higher investment needs for low-carbon power infrastructure, particularly towards the end of the SDG period. In the absence of more detailed analyses, this chapter retains the NCEC (2014) analysis, which is adjusted by removing savings from lower investments in the fossil fuel supply chain, which is outside the scope of this SDG needs assessment.…”

“…For example, assessing OECD performance using only data for official SDG indicators suggests that gender equality is the greatest SDG challenge in these countries, while SDG 14 (marine ecosystems) has been largely achieved, and SDG 13 (climate change) represents relatively modest challenges. These findings are at odds with the scientific literature on oceans (Halpern et al, 2012;Inniss et al, 2016) and climate change (IPCC, 2014;Bataille et al, 2016;Sachs et al, 2016c).…”

“…Notwithstanding the wellknown analytical shortcomings in the estimation of resource needs (Ki-Moon et al, 2008;Parry et al, 2009;Fankhauser, 2010), addressing this question will help arrive at an integrated framework for development and climate financing needs. Gradual refinements of the numbers and the filling-in of remaining analytical gaps will over time lead to a better assessment of the resources Africa requires to pursue climate-resilient development (Stern, 2009a), including financing needs for climate change mitigation (Bataille et al, 2016;Sachs et al, 2016c). By specifying financing needs for adaptation and development in one integrated framework, the analysis will also help define the financial 'additionality' of climate adaptation financing, a central question in the policy and research literature (Stern, 2007;World Bank, 2010a;Buchner et al, 2014;OECD and CPI, 2015).…”

“…Poor developing countries will need to significantly increase public and private investments in the economic, social, and environmental dimensions of sustainable development (UNCTAD, 2014;UNTT, 2013). In turn, high-income countries will primarily need to redirect public and private expenditure coupled with modest incremental expenditure, as documented, for example, for the transition towards lowcarbon energy systems (GEA, 2012;NCEC, 2014;Bataille et al, 2016). Upper-middleincome countries present an intermediate set of financing challenges.…”