The Moran Effect and Synchrony in Population Dynamics

Ranta, Esa; Kaitala, Veijo; Lindström, Jan; Helle, Eero

doi:10.2307/3545809

Cited by 281 publications

(251 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…The central idea of the Moran effect is that natural communities would be synchronized if they were subjected to regional drivers (Ranta et al 1997;Hudson and Cattadori 1999;Ripa 2000). Following the theory of the Moran effect, the causes of synchrony for population dynamics have been documented extensively in most of the published literatures.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Patterns of asynchrony for phytoplankton fluctuations from reservoir mainstream to a tributary bay in a giant dendritic reservoir (Three Gorges Reservoir, China)

Cai

Shao

et al. 2011

Aquat Sci

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Seasonal fluctuations of phytoplankton have often been regarded as one of the important cyclic events in aquatic ecosystems, and have even been emphasized as an important sign of regional climatic variability in limnology. However, few attempts have been made to examine synchrony for phytoplankton fluctuations among different habitats in a single reservoir system. The present study employed Spearman rank correlation analysis and the Mantel test to assess levels of synchrony for phytoplankton abundance and taxonomic composition from reservoir mainstream to a tributary bay (Xiangxi Bay) in a giant dendritic reservoir, China (Three Gorges Reservoir, TGR). At the selected scale, asynchronous patterns of phytoplankton were found when looking at total abundance and taxonomic composition, suggesting that regional drivers were not strong enough to synchronize phytoplankton fluctuations, and local regulators were predominant. As a riverine system, the mainstream of TGR had high levels of algal synchrony, while asynchronous patterns of phytoplankton were detected within Xiangxi Bay, which is characterized as a lacustrine system. The present study further confirmed that external hydrological disturbances strongly homogenize habitat conditions and synchronize phytoplankton fluctuations within the mainstream, while spatial divergence of phytoplankton succession depend on local habitat conditions within Xiangxi Bay. Moreover, low synchrony of phytoplankton between the mainstream and Xiangxi Bay is probably caused by spatial divergence of phytoplankton succession within Xiangxi Bay and the lack of succession in the rapidly flushed mainstream. Independently of these mechanisms possibly explaining phytoplankton fluctuations, the present study has also an applied perspective to the improvement of a long-term observation program in which phytoplankton trends at the mainstream scale could be compiled from the data set in a single site, while a set of sampling sites should be required at the Xiangxi Bay scale.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Patterns of asynchrony for phytoplankton fluctuations from reservoir mainstream to a tributary bay in a giant dendritic reservoir (Three Gorges Reservoir, China)

Cai

Shao

et al. 2011

Aquat Sci

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“…First, as the frequency and severity of the densityindependent perturbations have changed, they now occur too frequently and/or are too strong to sustain periodic oscillations (Lindström et al 1995;Ranta et al 1997a;Cattadori et al 2005). Ranta et al (1997b) showed for different types of dynamics that increasing frequency and strength of the Moran effect may lead to loss of cyclic components.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Short- and long-term population dynamical consequences of asymmetric climate change in black grouse

Ludwig

Alatalo

Helle³

et al. 2006

Proc. R. Soc. B.

Self Cite

133

129

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Temporal asymmetry in patterns of regional climate change may jeopardize the match between the proximate and ultimate cues of the timing of breeding. The consequences on short-and long-term population dynamics and trends as well as the underlying mechanisms are, however, often unknown. Using long-term data from Finland, we demonstrate that black grouse (Tetrao tetrix) have responded to spring warming by advancing both egg-laying and hatching. However, early summer (the time of hatching) has not advanced, and chicks have to face colder post-hatching conditions. Demonstrating that these conditions are critical to post-hatching survival, we show that chicks are increasingly suffering higher mortality because they hatch too early. Consequently, breeding success and population size has severely declined over the past four decades. Finally, we modelled the impact of this particular climate change scenario on population dynamics and show that the mismatch can further explain the observed collapse of cyclic fluctuations. Because the evolutionary response of grouse is lagging behind the novel selective pressures, seasonally asymmetric climate change is likely to constitute an important determinant of future short-and long-term changes in the dynamics of black grouse populations.

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“…in McKone et al (1998)). The Moran Effect or synchronisation using weather cues (Ranta et al 1997;Kelly et al 2013) could also account for this non-linear effect of weather variability and seed production. These exosomatic signals may act as triggers for mobilising stored reserves in plants to produce seeds.…”

Section: Rethinking the Influence Of Weather On Masting Behaviourmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporal trends in the enhanced vegetation index and spring weather predict seed production in Mediterranean oaks

et al. 2015

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The extremely year-to-year variable production of seeds (masting) is an extended plant reproductive behaviour important for forest dynamics and food webs. The dependence of these episodes of massive seed production on recently or long-term photosynthesised carbohydrates, however, remains controversial. In this paper, we explore whether vegetation (tree canopy) changes, detected using EVI as a proxy of leaf area and photosynthetic capacity, can provide a reliable estimation of seed production. To complete this analysis, we also explored the effect of weather both in the trends of EVI and in acorn crop size. To this end, we compared the trends of the EVI and acorn production over 10 years (2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009) in five stands of Quercus ilex L. in Barcelona (Catalonia, NE Spain). We found that acorn production was mainly driven by a combination of: (i) a minimum initial threshold in the EVI values, (ii) an increase in EVI in the 9 ± 4 months prior to reproduction, and (iii) appropriate weather conditions (low water stress) during spring. These results indicated, apparently for the first time, that reproduction in masting species could be detected and partly predicted by remotely sensed vegetative indices. Our results suggested that this particular reproductive behaviour in Mediterranean oaks was driven by a combination of two factors, i.e. good and improving vegetation conditions, as shown by a minimum initial threshold and the increase in EVI needed for large seed crops, and the need of wet weather conditions during spring. Moreover, our results fully supported recent studies that have associated short-term photosynthate production with seed production.

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The Moran Effect and Synchrony in Population Dynamics

Cited by 281 publications

References 46 publications

Patterns of asynchrony for phytoplankton fluctuations from reservoir mainstream to a tributary bay in a giant dendritic reservoir (Three Gorges Reservoir, China)

Patterns of asynchrony for phytoplankton fluctuations from reservoir mainstream to a tributary bay in a giant dendritic reservoir (Three Gorges Reservoir, China)

Short- and long-term population dynamical consequences of asymmetric climate change in black grouse

Temporal trends in the enhanced vegetation index and spring weather predict seed production in Mediterranean oaks

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