The MJO From CMIP5 to CMIP6: Perspectives From Tracking MJO Precipitation

Chen, Guiwan; Jian, Ling; Zhang, Rongwang; Xiao, Ziniu; Li, Chongyin

doi:10.1029/2021gl095241

Cited by 12 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 46 publications

(75 reference statements)

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“…These studies explored future MJO characteristics using the earlier CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. An evaluation based on CMIP6 models is underway [14][15][16] . We here summarize a few key points on the future projections of the MJO lifecycle as discussed by earlier literature.…”

Section: Projected Changes In the Mjo Lifecycle As Discussed By The E...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Madden Julian Oscillation moves faster as the meridional moisture gradient intensifies in a warming world

Dasgupta

Roxy

Prajeesh

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), characterized by slow eastward moving (at an average speed of 5 m s-1) largescale cloud bands and associated circulations, is a dominant tropical phenomenon that impacts global weather and climate. Recent studies have reported significant changes in the MJO lifecycle during the post-satellite period (1979 onwards) due to the non-uniform tropical ocean warming. However, the relative roles of natural climate variability and anthropogenic impact in the observed MJO lifecycle change remain unclear and are yet to be determined. In this study, we investigate the observed and projected long-term changes in the MJO lifecycle during the 20th and 21st centuries using four 20th century reanalyses (NCEP-20CRV3, NCEP-20CRV2c, ERA-20C, and CERA-20C) and climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) under different future emission scenarios. Here, we show for the first time a significant increase in the MJO phase speed by almost 1 m s-1 during the 20th century (1900–2014), potentially caused by the steepening of the meridional moisture distribution due to the increased moisture in the tropics compared to the extra-tropics. We also observe a prominent multidecadal variability of the MJO phase speed due to the changes in the zonal moisture distribution associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Future climate projections under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) from CMIP6 indicate an increase in the MJO phase speed by 0.10 (SSP1—sustainable path, low emission scenario), 0.68 (SSP2—intermediate emissions) and 1.18 (SSP5—high emission scenario) m s-1 during the 21st century (2015–2100), in response to further steepening of the meridional moisture distribution over the Indo-Pacific warm pool. The increasing MJO phase speed can potentially impact the MJO-related teleconnections and predictability of global weather and climate, and hence need to be monitored closely.

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Section: Projected Changes In the Mjo Lifecycle As Discussed By The E...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Madden Julian Oscillation moves faster as the meridional moisture gradient intensifies in a warming world

Dasgupta

Roxy

Prajeesh

et al. 2023

Preprint

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show abstract

“…With considerable improvement in physics parameterizations, the general performance on the simulation of the MJO is improved in the CMIP6 models compared to the CMIP5 models (Ahn et al., 2020; G. Chen et al., 2022; Orbe et al., 2020). However, many CMIP6 models still underestimate MJO amplitude and struggle to simulate realistic eastward propagation patterns (G. Chen et al., 2022; Le et al., 2021). The realistic representation of the MJO in GCMs is a challenging task in that it involves physical processes with large uncertainties.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Most models participating in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulate underestimated MJO amplitude and low coherency between large‐scale wind field and convection system (Ahn et al., 2017). With considerable improvement in physics parameterizations, the general performance on the simulation of the MJO is improved in the CMIP6 models compared to the CMIP5 models (Ahn et al., 2020; G. Chen et al., 2022; Orbe et al., 2020). However, many CMIP6 models still underestimate MJO amplitude and struggle to simulate realistic eastward propagation patterns (G. Chen et al., 2022; Le et al., 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…considerable improvement in physics parameterizations, the general performance on the simulation of the MJO is improved in the CMIP6 models compared to the CMIP5 models (Ahn et al, 2020;G. Chen et al, 2022;Orbe et al, 2020).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Chen et al, 2022;Orbe et al, 2020). However, many CMIP6 models still underestimate MJO amplitude and struggle to simulate realistic eastward propagation patterns (G. Chen et al, 2022;Le et al, 2021). The realistic representation of the MJO in GCMs is a challenging task in that it involves physical processes with large uncertainties.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Global Simulation of the Madden–Julian Oscillation With Stochastic Unified Convection Scheme

Shin

Baik

2023

J Adv Model Earth Syst

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Simulation of MJO with improved deep convection scheme in different resolutions of BCC-CSM2 models

Zheng,

Wu,

Xin

et al. 2024

Clim Dyn

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This study investigates the impacts of modifying the deep convection scheme on the ability to simulate the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 2 with a medium resolution (BCC-CSM2-T159) and a high resolution (BCC-CSM2-T382). On the basis of the original deep convection scheme, a modified scheme is suggested, which involves the transport processes of deep convective cloud water. The liquid cloud water that is detrained is transferred horizontally to its neighboring grids, and a portion of the cloud water that is horizontally transported is allowed to be transported downward into the lower troposphere. Both BCC-CSM2-T159 and BCC-CSM2-T382 with the modified deep convection scheme perform better than that used the original deep convection scheme in reproducing the major features of the MJO, such as its spectrum, period, intensity, eastward propagation and life cycle. Further analysis shows that those pronounced improvements in the MJO features in both BCC-CSM2-T159 and BCC-CSM2-T382 with the modified scheme are caused by transport processes of deep convective cloud water. The modified deep convection scheme enhances moisture and energy exchange from the lower troposphere to the upper troposphere around convective cloud, and promotes the convergence of moisture in the lower troposphere to the east of the MJO convection center, and then induces eastward propagation of the MJO. The comparisons between the coupled experiments and their corresponding experiments following Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations indicated that atmosphere–ocean interactions are also important to improve MJO simulations in the models.

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The MJO From CMIP5 to CMIP6: Perspectives From Tracking MJO Precipitation

Cited by 12 publications

References 46 publications

Madden Julian Oscillation moves faster as the meridional moisture gradient intensifies in a warming world

Madden Julian Oscillation moves faster as the meridional moisture gradient intensifies in a warming world

Global Simulation of the Madden–Julian Oscillation With Stochastic Unified Convection Scheme

Simulation of MJO with improved deep convection scheme in different resolutions of BCC-CSM2 models

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