The Missing Link in General Deterrence Research*

Abstract

Research on the deterrent effects of punishment falls into two categories: macro-level studies of the impact of aggregate punishment levels on crime rates, and individual-level studies of the impact of perceived punishment levels on self-reported criminal behavior. For policy purposes, however, the missing link-ignored in previous research-is that between aggregate punishment levels and individual perceptions of punishment. This paper addresses whether higher actual punishment levels increase the perceived certainty, severity, or swiftness of punishment.Telephone interviews with 1,500 residents of fifty-four large urban counties were used to measure perceptions of punishment levels, which were then linked to actual punishment levels as measured in official statistics. Hierarchical linear model estimates of multivariate models generally found no detectable impact of actual punishment levels on perceptions of punishment. The findings raise serious questions about deterrence-based rationales for more punitive crime control policies.The deterrence doctrine asserts that some people will refrain from some acts because they perceive a risk of punishment. Research on the general deterrent effect of punishment on criminal behavior has largely fallen within two broad categories: (1) macro-level research using official *

Assessing the Celerity of Arrest on 3-Year Recidivism Patterns in a Sample of Criminal Defendants

“…Their study concluded that variation in sanction certainty and severity predicted offending, whereas variation in celerity did not. A telephone survey of adults' perceptions of punishment certainty, severity, and swiftness of punishment did not find that celerity of actual punishment had an effect on respondents' perceptions of punishment (Kleck et al, 2005; see also Piquero et al, 2012). A similar study by Kleck and Barnes (2008) aggregated these perceptions up to the county level and found that average local population perceptions of the certainty, severity, and swiftness of punishment were not related to actual levels of punishment at the county level.…”

“…While there is ample empirical evidence assessing the deterrent effects of certainty and much less so with respect to severity (see Nagin, 2013;Piquero, Paternoster, Pogarsky, & Loughran, 2011), less is known about the effects of celerity, or the time elapsed between the commission of an offense and its punishment. While a handful of studies have considered the potential deterrent effects of celerity (see Howe & Loftus, 1996;Kleck, Sever, Li, & Gertz, 2005;Nagin & Pogarsky, 2001;O'Connell, Visher, Martin, Parker, & Brent, 2011;Pestello, 1984) there is little consensus as to whether swift punishment provides for a deterrent effect. Further, celerity has historically been defined by the time between arrest and criminal sentence, leaving other 'punishments' such as pre-sentence punishments (e.g., arrest and jailing), relatively unexplored.…”

Criminal Deterrence: A Review of the Literature

“…Important recent work includes that of Kleck et al (2005) and Kleck and Barnes (2013), who conducted a telephone survey of 1,500 adults in fifty-four large urban counties in the United States. They asked each individual to estimate case clearance rates, the probability of serving time in prison, and maximum sentence for several different serious felonies.…”

Effects of introducing an administrative .05% blood alcohol concentration limit on law enforcement patterns and alcohol-related collisions in Canada

“…Few studies have investigated the relationship between law enforcement indicators and variations in the public perceptions about the properties of punishment (Kleck et al, 2005;Homel, 1988). In his seminal work on random breath testing (RBT) in New South Wales, Australia, Homel (1988) shows that the introduction of RBT was used as an argument to resist peer pressure to drink-and-drive.…”