Background
Current prostate cancer screening guidelines conflict with respect to the age at which to initiate screening.
Objective
To evaluate the effect of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening, versus zero screening, starting at age 50-54, on prostate cancer mortality.
Design, Setting, and Participants
This is a population-based cohort study comparing 3,479 men aged 50 through 54 randomized to PSA-screening in the Göteborg population-based prostate cancer screening trial, initiated in 1995, versus 4,060 unscreened men aged 51 to 55 providing cryopreserved blood in the population-based Malmö Preventive Project in the pre-PSA era, during 1982-1985.
Outcome measures and Statistical Analysis
Cumulative incidence and incidence rate ratios of prostate cancer diagnosis, metastasis, and prostate cancer death.
Results and Limitation
At 17 years, regular PSA-screening in Göteborg of men in their early 50s carried a more than 2-fold higher risk of prostate cancer diagnosis compared to the unscreened men in Malmö (IRR 2.56, 95% CI 2.18, 3.02), but resulted in a substantial decrease in risk of metastases (IRR 0.43, 95% CI 0.22, 0.79) and prostate cancer death (IRR 0.29, 95% CI 0.11, 0.67). There were 57 fewer prostate cancer deaths per 10,000 men (95% CI 22, 92) in the screened group. At 17 years, the number needed to invite to PSA-screening and the number needed to diagnose to prevent one prostate cancer death was 176 and 16, respectively. The study is limited by lack of treatment information and the comparison of two different birth cohorts.
Conclusions
PSA screening for prostate cancer can decrease prostate cancer mortality among men aged 50–54, with NNI and NND comparable to those previously reported from the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer for men aged 55-69 years, at similar follow-up. Guideline groups could consider whether guidelines for PSA screening should recommend starting no later than at ages 50-54.
Trial registration
The Göteborg randomized population-based prostate cancer screening trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry (isrctn.com). Identifier: ISRCTN54449243.