The Measurement of Malaria Transmission

MacDonald, George

doi:10.1177/003591575504800409

Cited by 43 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…The mechanistic structure of HYDREMATS is most suitable for estimating R o under dynamic conditions; conventional Ross-MacDonald formula [10] assumes static conditions. R o values for a given condition were estimated in HYDREMATS to follow the exact definition of R o .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Environmental determinants of malaria transmission in African villages

Endo

Eltahir

2016

Malar J

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BackgroundMalaria transmission is complex, involving a range of hydroclimatological, biological, and environmental processes. The high degree of non-linearity in these processes makes it difficult to predict and intervene against malaria. This study seeks both to define a minimal number of malaria transmission determinants, and to provide a theoretical basis for sustainable environmental manipulation to prevent malaria transmission.MethodsUsing a field-tested mechanistic malaria model, HYDREMATS, a theoretical study was conducted under hypothetical conditions. Simulations were conducted with a range of hydroclimatological and environmental conditions: temperature (t), length of wet season (Twet), storm inter-arrival time (Tint), persistence of vector breeding pools (Ton), and distribution of houses from breeding pools and from each other (Xdist and Ydist, respectively). Based on the theoretical study, a malaria time scale, To, and a predictive theory of malaria transmission were introduced. The performance of the predictive theory was compared against the observational malaria transmission data in West Africa. Population density was used to estimate the scale that describes the spatial distribution of houses.ResultsThe predictive theory shows a universality in malaria endemic conditions when plotted using two newly-introduced dimension-less parameters. The projected malaria transmission potential compared well with the observation data, and the apparent differences were discussed. The results illustrate the importance of spatial aspects in malaria transmission.ConclusionsThe predictive theory is useful in measuring malaria transmission potential, and it can also provide guidelines on how to plan the layout of human habitats in order to prevent endemic malaria. Malaria-resistant villages can be designed by locating houses further than critical distances away from breeding pools or by removing pools within a critical distance from houses; the critical distance is described in the context of local climatology and hydrology.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-016-1633-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Environmental determinants of malaria transmission in African villages

Endo

Eltahir

2016

Malar J

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“…In a follow-up paper, Macdonald borrowed Lotka's demographic concept of a basic reproduction ratio for malaria [71]. Later, he called the quantity Z 0 [72], but it is now more commonly called R 0 and the name has become a standard throughout mathematical epidemiology. R 0 describes the expected number of hosts that would be infected by a single infected host in a completely susceptible population:Macdonald's attention to decades of epidemiological studies facilitated development of methods to measure transmission entomologically: one year later, Draper and Davidson published the first estimate of R 0 [73].…”

Section: The Ross-macdonald Theory Matures 1950–1969mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These landmark papers paved the way for the expansion of an entomological theory that would soon come. Over the next few years, Macdonald wrote papers discussing R 0 in relation to both endemic and epidemic malaria [71], [72], [78] (see Text S1). …”

Section: The Ross-macdonald Theory Matures 1950–1969mentioning

confidence: 99%

Ross, Macdonald, and a Theory for the Dynamics and Control of Mosquito-Transmitted Pathogens

et al. 2012

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Ronald Ross and George Macdonald are credited with developing a mathematical model of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission. A systematic historical review suggests that several mathematicians and scientists contributed to development of the Ross-Macdonald model over a period of 70 years. Ross developed two different mathematical models, Macdonald a third, and various “Ross-Macdonald” mathematical models exist. Ross-Macdonald models are best defined by a consensus set of assumptions. The mathematical model is just one part of a theory for the dynamics and control of mosquito-transmitted pathogens that also includes epidemiological and entomological concepts and metrics for measuring transmission. All the basic elements of the theory had fallen into place by the end of the Global Malaria Eradication Programme (GMEP, 1955–1969) with the concept of vectorial capacity, methods for measuring key components of transmission by mosquitoes, and a quantitative theory of vector control. The Ross-Macdonald theory has since played a central role in development of research on mosquito-borne pathogen transmission and the development of strategies for mosquito-borne disease prevention.

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“…It is reassuring that Griffin, using current modelling techniques, recently computed that there is no bistable equilibrium in transmission and therefore that elimination is feasible [4]. The following discussion is, however, founded upon one of the earliest models of malaria transmission, the Ross-MacDonald relationship [5–7], which clearly identifies the impact of key component events regulating malaria case prevalence over time, i.e., the basic reproductive value, R o .…”

Section: The Purpose and Prioritization Of T-b Strategiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Developing transmission-blocking strategies for malaria control

Sinden

2017

PLoS Pathog

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The Measurement of Malaria Transmission

Cited by 43 publications

References 11 publications

Environmental determinants of malaria transmission in African villages

Environmental determinants of malaria transmission in African villages

Ross, Macdonald, and a Theory for the Dynamics and Control of Mosquito-Transmitted Pathogens

Developing transmission-blocking strategies for malaria control

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