The mean and variance of climate change in the oceans: hidden evolutionary potential under stochastic environmental variability in marine sticklebacks

Shama, Lisa N S

doi:10.1038/s41598-017-07140-9

Cited by 37 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 94 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Our results demonstrate that the direction of TGP effects cannot be generalized as buffering or accelerating, and reveal to be context‐dependent (i.e., life stages and direction of salinity change). Furthermore, not only the environmental shift per se, but also the environmental variability seems to play an important role in the extent of TGP (Shama, ). As a result, we hypothesized that the direction (accelerating/buffering) and the magnitude of transgenerational plasticity differ between these more (increased salinity) and less (decreased salinity) stressful treatments.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Transgenerational plasticity and selection shape the adaptive potential of sticklebacks to salinity change

Heckwolf

Meyer

Döring

et al. 2018

Evolutionary Applications

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In marine climate change research, salinity shifts have been widely overlooked. While widespread desalination effects are expected in higher latitudes, salinity is predicted to increase closer to the equator. We took advantage of the steep salinity gradient of the Baltic Sea as a space‐for‐time design to address effects of salinity change on populations. Additionally, genetic diversity, a prerequisite for adaptive responses, is reduced in Baltic compared to Atlantic populations. On the one hand, adaptive transgenerational plasticity (TGP) might buffer the effects of environmental change, which may be of particular importance under reduced genetic variation. On the other hand, physiological trade‐offs due to environmental stress may hamper parental provisioning to offspring thereby intensifying the impact of climate change across generations (nonadaptive TGP). Here, we studied both hypothesis of adaptive and nonadaptive TGP in the three‐spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) fish model along the strong salinity gradient of the Baltic Sea in a space‐for‐time experiment. Each population tolerated desalination well, which was not altered by parental exposure to low salinity. Despite a common marine ancestor, populations locally adapted to low salinity lost their ability to cope with fully marine conditions, resulting in lower survival and reduced relative fitness. Negative transgenerational effects were evident in early life stages, but disappeared after selection via mortality occurred during the first 12–30 days posthatch. Modeling various strengths of selection, we showed that nonadaptive transgenerational plasticity accelerated evolution by increasing directional selection within the offspring generation. Qualitatively, when genetic diversity is large, we predict that such effects will facilitate rapid adaptation and population persistence, while below a certain threshold populations suffer a higher risk of local extinction. Overall, our results suggest that transgenerational plasticity and selection are not independent of each other and thereby highlight a current gap in TGP studies.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Transgenerational plasticity and selection shape the adaptive potential of sticklebacks to salinity change

Heckwolf

Meyer

Döring

et al. 2018

Evolutionary Applications

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Heritabilities are useful under constant conditions, but could misrepresent evolutionary potential in the wild for two reasons (Visscher et al 2008, Hendry 2017. Heritability can therefore be high in nature or the future, even when experiments suggest it is currently low (Santos et al 2012, Heerwaarden et al 2016, Shama 2017. Second, heritabilities differ among populations and environments (Hoffmann and Merilä 1999), yet most heritability estimates derive from a few populations and under restrictive environmental (often laboratory) conditions.…”

Section: Box 2 Shifting Evolutionary Potential Under Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, an ectotherm's upper thermal tolerance can vary by several degrees Celsius within and among populations (Araújo et al 2013), genetic variation explains 28% of this trait variation on average (Diamond 2017), and individuals with higher thermal tolerances will often be favored under climate change. Climate change could also reveal hidden evolutionary potential even when there is seemingly little potential under current conditions (Schlichting 2008, Husby et al 2011, Shama 2017.…”

Section: Box 2 Shifting Evolutionary Potential Under Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Second, heritabilities differ among populations and environments (Hoffmann and Merilä 1999), yet most heritability estimates derive from a few populations and under restrictive environmental (often laboratory) conditions. Heritability can therefore be high in nature or the future, even when experiments suggest it is currently low (Santos et al 2012, Heerwaarden et al 2016, Shama 2017.…”

Section: Box 2 Shifting Evolutionary Potential Under Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Eco‐evolution on the edge during climate change

2019

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We urgently need to predict species responses to climate change to minimize future biodiversity loss and ensure we do not waste limited resources on ineffective conservation strategies. Currently, most predictions of species responses to climate change ignore the potential for evolution. However, evolution can alter species ecological responses, and different aspects of evolution and ecology can interact to produce complex ecoevolutionary dynamics under climate change. Here we review how evolution could alter ecological responses to climate change on species warm and cool range margins, where evolution could be especially important. We discuss different aspects of evolution in isolation, and then synthesize results to consider how multiple evolutionary processes might interact and affect conservation strategies. On species cool range margins, the evolution of dispersal could increase range expansion rates and allow species to adapt to novel conditions in their new range. However, low genetic variation and genetic drift in small range-front populations could also slow or halt range expansions. Together, these eco-evolutionary effects could cause a three-step, stop-and-go expansion pattern for many species. On warm range margins, isolation among populations could maintain high genetic variation that facilitates evolution to novel climates and allows species to persist longer than expected without evolution. This 'evolutionary extinction debt' could then prevent other species from shifting their ranges. However, as climate change increases isolation among populations, increasing dispersal mortality could select for decreased dispersal and cause rapid range contractions. Some of these eco-evolutionary dynamics could explain why many species are not responding to climate change as predicted. We conclude by suggesting that resurveying historical studies that measured trait frequencies, the strength of selection, or heritabilities could be an efficient way to increase our eco-evolutionary knowledge in climate change biology. ) and M. C. Urban (https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3962-4091),

show abstract

“…Furthermore, increased temperature can affect the egg sizes in a clutch (Shama, 2017) and disrupt the spawn frequency as shown in the field study of Hovel, Carlson, and Quinn (2016). As the design of mesocosm experiments does not allow accurate recording of the number of spawned eggs in the nests, we compared the model predictions for reproduction with literature data of studies assessing the breeding system of the three-spined stickleback.…”

Section: Relevance Of the Deb Model Predictions For Mesocosmsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling historical mesocosm data: Application of a fish bioenergetics model in semi‐natural conditions

David

Goussen

Tebby

et al. 2018

Ecology of Freshwater Fish

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Developing ecological models for accurately predicting the dynamics of a population and individual physiological processes in field conditions is a challenging task for ecosystem management and ecological risk assessment. Here, we propose to assess the relevance of a dynamic energy budget (DEB) model calibrated using data previously generated from laboratory experiments for adult three-spined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus) living in semi-natural conditions. We compared different ways of integrating different data sets such as temperature and prey abundance obtained in mesocosm experiments to assess the predictive capacity of the model. By this study, we provide recommendations for developing an appropriate environmental scenario (e.g. natural variations of food and temperature) for using a DEB model in a field context. We conclude that a DEB model calibrated with laboratory data can be used to predict the physiological processes of an organism living in semi-natural conditions, but that the reproductive behaviour of the organism can affect the predictions. At last, we suggest that further studies on the feeding behaviour may be necessary for immature organisms. K E Y W O R D Sdynamic energy budget, environmental scenario, mesocosm, three-spined stickleback

show abstract

The mean and variance of climate change in the oceans: hidden evolutionary potential under stochastic environmental variability in marine sticklebacks

Cited by 37 publications

References 94 publications

Transgenerational plasticity and selection shape the adaptive potential of sticklebacks to salinity change

Transgenerational plasticity and selection shape the adaptive potential of sticklebacks to salinity change

Eco‐evolution on the edge during climate change

Modelling historical mesocosm data: Application of a fish bioenergetics model in semi‐natural conditions

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About