The Maunder minimum and the Little Ice Age: an update from recent reconstructions and climate simulations

Abstract

-The Maunder minimum (MM) was a period of extremely low solar activity from approximately AD 1650 to 1715. In the solar physics literature, the MM is sometimes associated with a period of cooler global temperatures, referred to as the Little Ice Age (LIA), and thus taken as compelling evidence of a large, direct solar influence on climate. In this study, we bring together existing simulation and observational studies, particularly the most recent solar activity and paleoclimate reconstructions, to examine this relation. Using northern hemisphere surface air temperature reconstructions, the LIA can be most readily defined as an approximately 480 year period spanning AD 1440-1920, although not all of this period was notably cold. While the MM occurred within the much longer LIA period, the timing of the features are not suggestive of causation and should not, in isolation, be used as evidence of significant solar forcing of climate. Climate model simulations suggest multiple factors, particularly volcanic activity, were crucial for causing the cooler temperatures in the northern hemisphere during the LIA. A reduction in total solar irradiance likely contributed to the LIA at a level comparable to changing land use.

Solar cycle prediction

“…Table 3 in Usoskin 2017). The currently hotly debated problem of the strength of the Modern Maximum has important implications, e.g., for the understanding of the role of solar forcing in global warming (Lean and Rind 2008;Chylek et al 2014;Nagy et al 2017b;Owens et al 2017). In this context it is important to stress that a secular increase in solar activity from the late nineteenth century (beginning of terrestrial global temperature record) to the mid-twentieth century is unquestionably present in all solar activity reconstructions.…”

Mild and Arid Climate in the Eastern Sahara‐Arabian Desert During the Late Little Ice Age

“…The LIA ended around 1850 (Masson-Delmotte et al, 2013) just prior to the onset of industrial era warming (Abram et al, 2016) and start of systematic instrumental observations of temperature and precipitation (Harris et al, 2014;Morice et al, 2012). The LIA is only approximately defined, and not all of this period was particularly cold (Owens et al, 2017). Our knowledge of LIA climate at interannual timescales is based largely on proxy records (E. R. Cook et al, 2015;Mann et al, 2009;Neukom et al, 2014;PAGES 2k Consortium, 2013;Wilson et al, 2016).…”

The climate of Granada (southern Spain) during the first third of the 18th century (1706–1730) according to documentary sources

“…In our case, there is no overlapping period between documentary and instrumental data, so a different methodology must be applied. Rodrigo (2008) proposed an alternative methodology to indices, trying to overcome the problem of the lack of an overlapping period. This method was tested using climate model paleo simulations .…”

“…Sometimes, the author summarizes the general behavior of a concrete month, for instance when he indicates that during April 1729 "westerly winds continued, with clouds and water, well-marked by the barometer". This month it rained on days 1, 2, 8, 11, 13, 14, and 23; that is to say, there were 7 rainy days, coinciding with the average value of days with rain higher than 1 mm during the reference period 1971-2000(INM, 2004; data on rainy days are not available in the database by Luna et al (2012). Therefore, we used the AEMET climate summary of the reference period .…”