The maternal mortality consequences of losing abortion access

Abstract

We update estimates of the maternal mortality impact of no abortions occurring in the U.S. following the recent release of new national and state abortion incidence data for 2020. This estimate quantifies the increase in maternal deaths that would occur after a total abortion ban solely due to the greater mortality risk of continuing pregnancy to term compared to having an abortion. We estimate the number of additional U.S. maternal deaths by race/ethnicity that would be caused if no abortion occurred, following previously published procedures and using published 2020 statistics on maternal mortality, births, and abortions. After the first year of no abortion occurring, we estimate increased exposure to the risks of pregnancy would cause an increase of 210 maternal deaths per year (24% increase), from 861 to 1071. The increase would be greatest among non-Hispanic Black people, for whom it would be 39%. We also estimate, by state, the number of additional maternal deaths caused by no abortion occurring in the 26 U.S. states that either have banned or the Guttmacher Institute estimates will soon ban abortion. We find that increases in some states would be as great as 29%, while in others, because of already extremely low abortion rates and numbers, less than 1 additional death would be expected. Banning abortion will likely change maternal mortality in ways beyond exposing more people to the existing risks of maternal death; any increase in maternal mortality due to these changes would be in addition to our estimates.

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