The Magnitude and Sources of Disagreement Among Gun Policy Experts

Abstract

A A A An n n nd d d dr r r re e e ew w w w R R R R. . . . M M M Mo o o or r r rr r r ra a a al l l l, , , , T T T Te e e er r r rr r r ry y y y L L L L. . . . S S S Sc c c ch h h he e e el l l ll l l l, , , , M M M Ma a a ar r r rg g g ga a a ar r r re e e et t t t T T T Ta a a an n n nk k k ka a a ar r r rd d d d in AMERICA INI INI INI INI NITIA TIA TIA TIA TIATIV TIV TIV TIV TIVE C O R P O R A T I O N A P A P A P A P PART ART ART ART R OF OF OF OF F TH TH TH THE R E R E R E R RAND AND AND AND Gun Policy E E E E Limited Print and Electronic Distribution RightsThis document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest.RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2088z1Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. : 978-1-9774-0030-7 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. ISBN © Copyright 2018 RAND CorporationR® is a registered trademark.iii PrefaceEffective gun policies must balance the constitutional right to bear arms and public interest in gun ownership with concerns about public health and safety. However, current efforts to craft legislation related to guns are hampered by a paucity of reliable information about the effects of such policies. To help address this problem, the RAND Corporation launched the Gun Policy in America initiative. The primary goal of the project is to create resources where policymakers and the general public can access unbiased information that facilitates development of fair and effective firearm policies.This report is one of several research products stemming from the initiative. The report describes a survey of policy experts to identify where access to reliable data would be most useful in resolving policy debates. Based on the results, we also developed a tool that allows users to explore how different combinations of policies are likely to affect a range of outcomes related to gun ownership. Another major study component is a synthesis of the available scientific evidence on how gun policies affect a range of outcomes. In a parallel effort, RAND ...

Changes in firearm mortality following the implementation of state laws regulating firearm access and use

“…The estimated effect sizes are generally in line with what experts predicted for these types of marginal policy changes (2), which target firearm storage and use behaviors of only a narrow class of individuals or situations. While the IRRs are all descriptively close to 1, the magnitudes of the estimated effects are of a size considered important by policy makers and the public, with each of these policy levers potentially affecting more than 1,000 firearm deaths each year.…”

“…For instance, one survey of 35 economists who study gun policy found that two-thirds believed that laws allowing the concealed carry of firearms would reduce murder rates (3), while a separate survey of gun policy experts found the opposite, with the majority believing that placing greater restrictions on concealed-carry permits would reduce gun deaths (4). A recent survey of firearm policy experts found that those who generally favor restrictive firearm regulations estimated that "stand-your-ground" (SYG) laws cause an 5% increase in homicides, while those who generally favored permissive regulations believed that these laws cause a 10% decrease in homicides (2). Similarly, experts favoring restrictive gun policies believed that child access prevention laws (CAP) would decrease firearm suicides by 5%, while experts favoring permissive regulations believed that such laws would have no effect on firearm suicides.…”

Evaluating Methods to Estimate the Effect of State Laws on Firearm Deaths: A Simulation Study

“…Statistical power would obviously improve for all models if simulated with a larger effect size, and we believe that policymakers do and should care about gun laws that are on the order of increasing or decreasing the total number of firearm deaths by 1,000 per year. In our survey of a diverse sample of gun policy experts (Morral, Schell, and Tankard, 2018), we found that, when an expert believed a policy would increase suicide and homicide by 3 percent, the expert also believed the policy should not be implemented; when the expert believed the policy would decrease these outcomes by 3 percent, they strongly supported implementation. Similarly, other domains in which public policy could affect 1,000 deaths per year are often treated as serious problems or solutions.…”

“…This effect size was also seen as large enough to be important within a RAND survey of gun policy experts drawn from both the gun control and gun rights communities (Morral, Schell, and Tankard, 2018). Specifically, we surveyed policy experts on their favorability toward 15 specific gun policies, as well as their beliefs about the expected effects of these policies.…”

Reducing Disagreements on Gun Policy Through Scientific Research and an Improved Data Infrastructure

“…Our research shows 6 Our criteria for studies that can provide scientific evidence of a causal effect of laws are explained in RAND that these are the kinds of questions for which there is strong disagreement between policy analysts and experts on opposing sides of gun policy debates. 9 One group believes that laws such as permitless carry, stand-your-ground, and the elimination of gun-free zones, will cause there to be fewer gun injuries, deaths, and mass shootings, and the other group believes that such laws will cause the opposite effects.…”