The Macroeconomic Effects of a Pandemic in Europe - A Model-Based Assessment

Jonung, Lars; Roeger, Werner

doi:10.2139/ssrn.920851

Cited by 88 publications

(65 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…During the outbreak of H1N1 influenza, also known as "swine flu", the world economy experienced a 0.34% loss [30]. Jonung and Roeger [31] demonstrated that the pandemic of the Spanish flu outbreak of 1918 led to a loss of 1.6% of Europe's GDP in its first year.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Influence of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Outbreak on Online and Offline Markets for Retail Sales

eunae

Sung

2017

Sustainability

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This study investigates whether the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) outbreak in Korea affected online and offline retail sales and determines the presence of a substitution or delay effect between the two. We analyze the monthly retail sales of electronic goods, semi-luxury goods, and groceries using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model with intervention. The findings are as follows. First, offline sales of electronic goods declined by 7.9%, while online sales increased by 7.03%, indicating that these markets can act as substitutes. Second, the offline sales of semi-luxury goods decreased for two months, while online sales remained the same, indicating that there can be a delay effect in the offline market. Finally, despite the slight increase in online sales and the moderate decrease in offline sales, the MERS outbreak did not have a statistically significant effect on grocery sales. Our research findings imply that stakeholders such as the government and retail provided useful information on how to deal with the unexpected outbreak.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Influence of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Outbreak on Online and Offline Markets for Retail Sales

eunae

Sung

2017

Sustainability

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“…These studies were excluded because they were reviews (14), were not economic evaluations (9), focused on seasonal influenza (6), focused on the impact of influenza (7), had no full text available for some conference abstracts (9), were not in the eligible languages (1), or did not report both the costs and outcomes of interventions (10). In addition, eight full text papers were identified from correspondence with authors of eligible papers, cited reference searching, and reference list screening, of which six were excluded as they studied the impact of disease (2) or were not economic evaluations (4). Finally, 44 studies were considered in our analysis ( Figure 1).…”

Section: Review Profilementioning

confidence: 99%

“…[2] Although concrete evidence on the macroeconomic consequences of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic have not yet been revealed, previous studies estimated the potential reduction of labor productivity and consumption demand, with results showing an approximately 2-5% decrease in annual gross product. [3,4] The World Health Organization (WHO) published pandemic preparedness and response guidance in 1999 with two revisions: the first in 2005 and the second in 2009. [1,2] These documents summarize the recommended WHO and national actions against pandemic influenza according to recognized pandemic phases.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Systematic Review of Economic Evaluations of Preparedness Strategies and Interventions against Influenza Pandemics

et al. 2012

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BackgroundAlthough public health guidelines have implications for resource allocation, these issues were not explicitly considered in previous WHO pandemic preparedness and response guidance. In order to ensure a thorough and informed revision of this guidance following the H1N1 2009 pandemic, a systematic review of published and unpublished economic evaluations of preparedness strategies and interventions against influenza pandemics was conducted.MethodsThe search was performed in September 2011 using 10 electronic databases, 2 internet search engines, reference list screening, cited reference searching, and direct communication with relevant authors. Full and partial economic evaluations considering both costs and outcomes were included. Conversely, reviews, editorials, and studies on economic impact or complications were excluded. Studies were selected by 2 independent reviewers.Results44 studies were included. Although most complied with the cost effectiveness guidelines, the quality of evidence was limited. However, the data sources used were of higher quality in economic evaluations conducted after the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Vaccination and drug regimens were varied. Pharmaceutical plus non-pharmaceutical interventions are relatively cost effective in comparison to vaccines and/or antivirals alone. Pharmaceutical interventions vary from cost saving to high cost effectiveness ratios. According to ceiling thresholds (Gross National Income per capita), the reduction of non-essential contacts and the use of pharmaceutical prophylaxis plus the closure of schools are amongst the cost effective strategies for all countries. However, quarantine for household contacts is not cost effective even for low and middle income countries.ConclusionThe available evidence is generally inconclusive regarding the cost effectiveness of preparedness strategies and interventions against influenza pandemics. Studies on their effectiveness and cost effectiveness should be readily implemented in forthcoming events that also involve the developing world. Guidelines for assessing the impact of disease and interventions should be drawn up to facilitate these studies.

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“…CGE modelling is an established economic analysis tool, particularly since the development of the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) approach to national accounting, e.g., (Pyatt, 1992;Stone, 1962a;Stone, 1962b), and the SAM approach to modelling, e.g., (Drud, Grais, & Pyatt, 1986;Pyatt, 1987). However, applications by health economists have been rare (Bell & Gersbach, 2009;Jonung & Roeger, 2006;Rutten & Reed, 2009;Smith, Keogh-Brown, Barnett and Tait, 2009;Smith, Yago, Millar, & Coast, 2005 and hence CGE remains novel in this field (Beutels, Edmunds et al 2007;Smith 2008).…”

Section: Cge Model and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating the economic impact of pandemic influenza: An application of the computable general equilibrium model to the UK

Smith

Keogh-Brown

Barnett

2011

Social Science & Medicine

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There is concern regarding the impact that a global infectious disease pandemic might have, especially the economic impact in the current financial climate. However, preparedness planning concentrates more upon population health and maintaining a functioning health sector than on the wider economic impact. We developed a single country Computable General Equilibrium model to estimate the economic impact of pandemic influenza (PI) and associated policies. While the context for this development was the United Kingdom, there are lessons to be drawn for application of this methodology, as well as indicative results, to other contexts. Disease scenarios were constructed from an epidemiological model which estimated case fatality rates (mild, moderate and severe) as 0.06%, 0.18% and 0.35%. A clinical attack rate of 35% was also used to produce influenza scenarios, together with preparedness policies, including antivirals and school closure, and the possible prophylactic absence of workers. U.K. cost estimates (in Sterling) are presented, together with relative percentage impacts applicable to similar large economies. Percentage/cost estimates suggest PI would reduce GDP by 0.3% (£ 3.5 bn), 0.4% (£ 5 bn) and 0.6% (£ 7.4 bn) respectively for the three disease scenarios. However, the impact of PI itself is smaller than disease mitigation policies: combining school closure with prophylactic absenteeism yields percentage/cost effects of 1.1% (£ 14.7 bn), 1.3% (£ 16.3 bn) and 1.4% (£ 18.5 bn) respectively for the three scenarios. Sensitivity analysis shows little variability with changes in disease parameters but notable changes with variations in school closure and prophylactic absenteeism. The most severe sensitivity scenario results in a 2.9% (£ 37.4 bn), 3.2% (£ 41.4 bn) and 3.7% (£ 47.5 bn) loss to GDP respectively for the three scenarios.

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The Macroeconomic Effects of a Pandemic in Europe - A Model-Based Assessment

Cited by 88 publications

References 10 publications

The Influence of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Outbreak on Online and Offline Markets for Retail Sales

The Influence of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Outbreak on Online and Offline Markets for Retail Sales

Systematic Review of Economic Evaluations of Preparedness Strategies and Interventions against Influenza Pandemics

Estimating the economic impact of pandemic influenza: An application of the computable general equilibrium model to the UK

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