2021
DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2021.01.010
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The lottery player’s fallacy: Why labels predict strategic choices

Abstract: This paper examines games with non-neutral option labels (such as "A", "B", "A", "A") and nds surprisingly invariant behaviour across games. The behaviour closely resembles the choices people make when they have to bet on one of the options in individual lotteries. An option's 'representativeness' (lack of distinguishing features) and 'reachability' (physical centrality, salience, and valence) determine choice behaviour in both the lotteries and the highly strategic games. There is no evidence of people best-r… Show more

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Cited by 2 publications
(3 citation statements)
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“…In Experiment 2-tyl, we use the same sets of labelled boxes. However, participants play one-shot ''to-your-left games'' (Wolff, 2021), in which a player gets a prize of 12e if he chooses the box immediately to the left of his opponent's choice. The game works in a circular fashion, so that choosing ''4'' against a choice of ''1'' by your opponent would make you win the 12e in a ''1-2-3-4'' setting.…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In Experiment 2-tyl, we use the same sets of labelled boxes. However, participants play one-shot ''to-your-left games'' (Wolff, 2021), in which a player gets a prize of 12e if he chooses the box immediately to the left of his opponent's choice. The game works in a circular fashion, so that choosing ''4'' against a choice of ''1'' by your opponent would make you win the 12e in a ''1-2-3-4'' setting.…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…sometimes also by their other features [13]. For instance, the probability that a certain number on a lottery ticket is selected also depends on its representativeness [15,36].…”
Section: Plos Onementioning
confidence: 99%
“…All tasks considered so far require choosing one of several items in an array. As a consequence, it is possible that additional biases from the features of the items or array contaminate pure position biases [13]. If the items are numbers, for instance, as in lottery or roulette choices, those considered as most representative [14] are often preferred [15].…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%