The Long-Term Pattern of Adult Mortality and the Highest Attained Age

Abstract

"Recent new data on old age mortality point to a particular model for the way in which the probability of dying increases with age. The model is found to fit not only modern data but also some widely spaced historical data for the 19th and 17th centuries, and even some estimates for the early mediaeval period. The results show a pattern which calls for explanation. The model can also be used to predict a probability distribution for the highest age which will be attained in given circumstances. The results are relevant to the current debate about whether there is a fixed upper limit to the length of human life." A discussion of the paper by several researchers and a reply by the author are included.

Understanding the shape of the mixture failure rate (with engineering and demographic applications)

“…We will address this question in Section 6 devoted to limiting behaviour of mixture failure rates. In any case, the derived pattern of the mixture mortality rate can explain the recently observed deceleration in human mortality at advanced age (human mortality plateau, as in Thatcher, 1999). …”

“…As it was mentioned in Section 1, demographers had recently observed the deceleration in human mortality at advanced ages which eventually results in human mortality plateau (Thatcher, 1999). The most reasonable explanation of this fact is via the concept of heterogeneity of human population which obviously takes place.…”

How is mortality affected by money, marriage, and stress?

“…Previous research has shown the log odds of mortality to be approximately linear in age for those aged over 30 (Thatcher, 1999). This corresponds to the case where F(.)…”

On damage accumulation and biological aging

“…Therefore, our model can explain the deceleration of human mortality at advanced ages (see, e.g., Thatcher (1999)) and even approaching a mortality plateau.…”