The long-term legacy of fossil fuels

Tyrrell, Toby; Shepherd, J. G.; Castle, Stephanie

doi:10.3402/tellusb.v59i4.17046

Cited by 17 publications

(28 citation statements)

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“…The Lenton and Britton model (2006) had a much faster neutralization response than this, of just 500 years, but none of our models do that. Other previous studies (Archer et al 1997, Tyrrell et al 2007 predicted CaCO 3 neutralization time scales of millennia and longer, consistent with our results. It should be noted that because of the computational constraints that some of the LTMIP ensemble models are subject to, the experiments presented here are not ideal for determining the equilibrium airborne fraction after CaCO 3 compensation from these runs, because the ocean burial of CaCO 3…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 83%

“…Broecker and Takahashi (1978) described the neutralization reaction with CaCO 3 . Many other carbon cycle models of a variety of configurations and resolutions (Archer 2005, Caldeira & Kasting 1993, Lenton & Britton 2006, Montenegro et al 2007, Sundquist 1990, Tyrrell et al 2007, and essentially all of them have found the same result. The mean lifetime (or transit time out of the atmosphere) of fossil fuel CO 2 molecules has been calculated to be tens of thousands of years (Archer et al 1997), not at all similar to the 50-100 year lifetime calculated using the linear approximation based on fluxes immediately following a release of CO 2 to the atmosphere.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 56%

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Atmospheric Lifetime of Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide

Archer

Eby

Brovkin

et al. 2009

Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci.

672

456

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CO 2 released from combustion of fossil fuels equilibrates between the various carbon reservoirs of the atmosphere, the ocean, and the terrestrial biosphere on time scales of a few centuries. However, a sizeable fraction of the CO 2 remains in the atmosphere, awaiting a return to the solid earth by much slower weathering processes and deposition of CaCO 3 . Common measures of atmospheric CO 2 lifetime, including the e-folding time scale, disregard the long tail. Its neglect in the calculation of global warming potentials leads many to underestimate the longevity of anthropogenic global warming. Here we review the past literature on the atmospheric lifetime of fossil fuel CO 2 and its impact on climate, and we present initial results from a model intercomparison project on this topic.The models agree that 20-35% of the CO 2 remains in the atmosphere after equilibration with the ocean (2-20 centuries). Neutralization by CaCO 3 draws the airborne fraction down further on time scales of 3-7 kyr.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 83%

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 56%

Atmospheric Lifetime of Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide

Archer

Eby

Brovkin

et al. 2009

Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci.

672

456

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Projections of future changes in ocean carbonate chemistry are relatively robust and largely model-independent on a time scale of a few centuries, mainly because the chemistry of CO 2 in seawater is well known and because changes in surface ocean carbonate chemistry closely track changes in atmospheric CO 2 [15,40,41]. However, the climatic and biotic response is far more difficult to forecast because of the complexity of the climate system, ecosystem dynamics and biogeochemical feedbacks [42].…”

Section: Massive Carbon Releasementioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term legacy of massive carbon input to the Earth system: Anthropocene versus Eocene

Zeebe

Zachos

2013

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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Over the next few centuries, with unabated emissions of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), a total of 5000 Pg C may enter the atmosphere, causing CO 2 concentrations to rise to approximately 2000 ppmv, global temperature to warm by more than 8 ° C and surface ocean pH to decline by approximately 0.7 units. A carbon release of this magnitude is unprecedented during the past 56 million years—and the outcome accordingly difficult to predict. In this regard, the geological record may provide foresight to how the Earth system will respond in the future. Here, we discuss the long-term legacy of massive carbon release into the Earth's surface reservoirs, comparing the Anthropocene with a past analogue, the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, approx. 56 Ma). We examine the natural processes and time scales of CO 2 neutralization that determine the atmospheric lifetime of CO 2 in response to carbon release. We compare the duration of carbon release during the Anthropocene versus PETM and the ensuing effects on ocean acidification and marine calcifying organisms. We also discuss the conundrum that the observed duration of the PETM appears to be much longer than predicted by models that use first-order assumptions. Finally, we comment on past and future mass extinctions and recovery times of biotic diversity.

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“…Regarding the legacy of anthropogenic GHG emissions (37), the main point of this study is that even if the fast-feedback sensitivity is no more than 3 K per CO 2 doubling, there will likely be additional long-term warming from slow climate feedbacks. Obviously, the projections presented here are subject to uncertainties (e.g., assessed via parameter variations; Fig.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Time-dependent climate sensitivity and the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions

Zeebe

2013

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Climate sensitivity measures the response of Earth's surface temperature to changes in forcing. The response depends on various climate processes that feed back on the initial forcing on different timescales. Understanding climate sensitivity is fundamental to reconstructing Earth's climatic history as well as predicting future climate change. On timescales shorter than centuries, only fast climate feedbacks including water vapor, lapse rate, clouds, and snow/sea ice albedo are usually considered. However, on timescales longer than millennia, the generally higher Earth system sensitivity becomes relevant, including changes in ice sheets, vegetation, ocean circulation, biogeochemical cycling, etc. Here, I introduce the time-dependent climate sensitivity, which unifies fast-feedback and Earth system sensitivity. I show that warming projections, which include a time-dependent climate sensitivity, exhibit an enhanced feedback between surface warming and ocean CO 2 solubility, which in turn leads to higher atmospheric CO 2 levels and further warming. Compared with earlier studies, my results predict a much longer lifetime of human-induced future warming (23,000-165,000 y), which increases the likelihood of large ice sheet melting and major sea level rise. The main point regarding the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is that, even if the fast-feedback sensitivity is no more than 3 K per CO 2 doubling, there will likely be additional long-term warming from slow climate feedbacks. Time-dependent climate sensitivity also helps explaining intense and prolonged warming in response to massive carbon release as documented for past events such as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.

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The long-term legacy of fossil fuels

Cited by 17 publications

References 0 publications

Atmospheric Lifetime of Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide

Atmospheric Lifetime of Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide

Long-term legacy of massive carbon input to the Earth system: Anthropocene versus Eocene

Time-dependent climate sensitivity and the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions

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