The long-term effects of meteorological parameters on pertussis infections in Chongqing, China, 2004–2018

Abstract

Evidence on the long-term influence of climatic variables on pertussis is limited. This study aims to explore the long-term quantitative relationship between weather variability and pertussis. Data on the monthly number of pertussis cases and weather parameters in Chongqing in the period of 2004–2018 were collected. Then, we used a negative binomial multivariable regression model and cointegration testing to examine the association of variations in monthly meteorological parameters and pertussis. Descriptive statistics exhibited that the pertussis incidence rose from 0.251 per 100,000 people in 2004 to 3.661 per 100,000 persons in 2018, and pertussis was a seasonal illness, peaked in spring and summer. The results from the regression model that allowed for the long-term trends, seasonality, autoregression, and delayed effects after correcting for overdispersion showed that a 1 hPa increment in the delayed one-month air pressure contributed to a 3.559% (95% CI 0.746–6.293%) reduction in the monthly number of pertussis cases; a 10 mm increment in the monthly aggregate precipitation, a 1 °C increment in the monthly average temperature, and a 1 m/s increment in the monthly average wind velocity resulted in 3.641% (95% CI 0.960–6.330%), 19.496% (95% CI 2.368–39.490%), and 3.812 (95% CI 1.243–11.690)-fold increases in the monthly number of pertussis cases, respectively. The roles of the mentioned weather parameters in the transmission of pertussis were also evidenced by a sensitivity analysis. The cointegration testing suggested a significant value among variables. Climatic factors, particularly monthly temperature, precipitation, air pressure, and wind velocity, play a role in the transmission of pertussis. This finding will be of great help in understanding the epidemic trends of pertussis in the future, and weather variability should be taken into account in the prevention and control of pertussis.

Spatiotemporal analysis of pertussis in Hunan Province, China, 2009–2019

“…Furthermore, research by Wang et al showed that monthly temperature, precipitation, air pressure and wind speed play an important role in the transmission of pertussis. 30 The areas with the highest incidence of pertussis in Hunan Province were Changsha, Yiyang, Loudi and Xiangxi Tujia, and Miao Autonomous Prefecture. As the provincial capital, Changsha City has a large population density and frequent movement of people, making it prone to infectious disease outbreaks.…”

“…Furthermore, research by Wang et al showed that monthly temperature, precipitation, air pressure and wind speed play an important role in the transmission of pertussis. 30 …”

“…28 Another explanation could be that the 'recurrence of pertussis' in many world regions may have alerted clinicians to increase the clinical use of pertussis PCR. [29][30][31] The actual reasons remain to be studied.…”

Impact of key meteorological parameters on the spread of COVID-19 in Mumbai: Correlation and Regression Analysis

“…Multiple studies have tried to explain the association between the spread of contagious diseases and meteorological parameters (Ma et al 2010, Wang et al 2020, du Prel et al 2009, Zha et al 2020, Tasci et al 2018). Most of these studies have established a strong association between weather related parameters and the disease.…”

“…The influence of meteorological parameters on infectious diseases has been studied extensively (Ma et al 2010, Wang et al 2020, du Prel et al 2009, Zha et al 2020, Tasci et al 2018) and from these studies it has been established that weather parameters play an important role in assisting or resisting the spread of disease in a particular region. Table 1 [9 - 13] provides a summary of reports that have previously established relationships and strong correlations between diseases and weather parameters.…”