The long-term effect of climate change on productivity of winter wheat in Denmark: a scenario analysis using three crop models

Abstract

SUMMARYThe response of grain yield, grain nitrogen (N), phenological development and evapotranspiration of winter wheat to climate change was analysed over an 80-year period based on climate change predictions of four regional circulation models (RCMs) under the IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change) A1B emission scenario for the 21st century using three process-based models; A 20-year set (1991–2010) of observed daily climate data from Aarslev, Denmark was used to form the baseline, from which the RCM data were generated. The simulation of crop growth was performed with increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) levels and under continuous mono-cropping system at different N input rates. Results indicated that grain yield and grain N will be reduced in the future despite increased CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. While the increased N input may increase yield, it will not increase grain N. The present study suggested that in Denmark, alternative strategies for organic N acquisition of plants must be developed. Statistical analyses showed that while the crop models were the main source of uncertainty in estimating crop performance indicators in response to climate change, the choice of RCM was the main source of uncertainty in relation to baseline estimations.

Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yield and Irrigation in the Monocacy River Watershed, USA

“…Overall, it is expected that future climate changes are likely to improve crop productivity in some areas and diminish it in others. It is important to assess the impact of climate changes on future water resources in order to evaluate the adaptive agricultural management needed to maintain expected crop productivity [13].…”

“…It is important for researchers, policymakers, and water resource managers to understand watershed scale hydrological processes to estimate forthcoming water stress and crop water demand. Researchers estimated water stress and crop productivity under different climate change conditions using both field experiments and modeling [13,17,18]. Researchers have evaluated the impacts of climate change on watershed hydrology and crop yield under existing management practices [19] or the effects of different irrigation conditions, such as irrigation amounts [20], timing, and frequency [21].…”

Long-term simulation of temporal change of soil organic carbon in Denmark: comparison of three model performances under climate change

“…The observed and generated baseline parameters were presented in detail in Ozturk et al (2017). In summary, increased future air temperature was suggested by all the RCMs.…”

ОПЕРАТИВНОЕ И ДОЛГОСРОЧНОЕ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ ПРОДУКТИВНОСТИ ПОСЕВОВ НА ОСНОВЕ МАССОВЫХ РАСЧЕТОВ ИМИТАЦИОННОЙ МОДЕЛИ АГРОЭКОСИСТЕМЫ В ГЕОИНФОРМАЦИОННОЙ СРЕДЕ (Обзор)

“…Поэтому динамические имитационные модели агроэкосистем выступают перспективным инструментом прогнозирования, позволяющим адекватно ответить на многочисленные вызовы (17)(18)(19)(20). Методология использования таких динамических моделей агроэкосистем для задач регионального планирования в настоящее время практически отсутствует, а примеры успешного средне-и долгосрочного прогнозирования малочисленны, что во многом объясняется тем, что адекватное пространственно-временнóе масштабирование требует адаптации и модификации внутренней логики существующих моделей и инфраструктуры компьютерных экспериментов (21)(22)(23). Такая модификация связана с необходимостью адекватного моделирования последовательности культур в многолетнем севообороте и учета разнообразия долговременных агротехнологических мероприятий (24)(25)(26)(27).…”