The Long Shadow of Human‐Generated Geohazards: Risks and Crises

Abstract

The purpose of this chapter is to focus attention on the "damage and risk" side of the geohazard (GHZ) phenomena rather than on their generating processes. Damage evaluations are indeed often neglected and oversimplified in predictive studies. As a result, risks are poorly understood and often considered as the mere expression of the probability or likelihood of an adverse event. In this chapter, we will use numerous real-life examples and will discuss among other subjects: technical glossary of risk, damages, crises, multidimensional consequences analysis, and definition of risk tolerance. This chapter also focuses on ethical (geo-ethical) issues linked to GHZs caused by human activities and their mitigation decisions and possible unintended consequences. The discussion includes the sometimes excessive and sometimes lacking (blindness) perception of risks by the public, corporate, and public officers. The root cause of some odd human behaviors when facing risks (biases) like the survivor bias is discussed. GHZs cast a long and often misunderstood shadow on human activities, development, and survival. By understanding how to model consequences and better evaluating risks and crises, we will be able to alleviate human and environmental suffering and foster sustainable development.

A Failure Modes and Effects Analysis Framework for Assessing Geotechnical Risks of Tailings Dam Closure

“…Using these definitions, the risk matrix can have risk categories assigned to provide extra weight to the consequences or likelihoods, or it may be symmetrical [23]. Oboni suggests that a risk matrix cannot be symmetrical as this typically indicates an incorrect prioritization of risks [54]. Risk matrices should be coloured with consideration of what the cells tell the user.…”