The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices: Small Trends and Big Variability

Cashin, Paul; McDermott, C. John

doi:10.5089/9781451848991.001

Cited by 117 publications

(125 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…Table 2 in Ocampo and Parra (2006) summarizes the 3 Consequently, and contrary to the argument made by Hadaas and Williamson (2003), this effect could be modeled under the assumption of equivalent (unitary) income elasticities for goods produced by both regions. 4 See, among others, Cuddington and Urzú a (1989), Powell (1991), Ardeni and Wright (1992), Cuddington (1992), Bleaney and Greenaway (1993), Soto (1995a and1995b), Cuddington and Wei (1998), Cashin and McDermott (2002), Cuddington et al (2002), Kaplinsky (2006), Kellard and Wohar (2006) and Harvey et al (2008).…”

Section: The P-s Hypothesismentioning

confidence: 99%

The terms of trade for commodities since the mid-19^thcentury

Ocampo¹,

Parra-Lancourt²

2010

RHE / JILAEH

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This paper shows that there was an improvement in the barter terms of trade for non-fuel commodities vs. manufactures in the late 19 th and early 20 th centuries, followed by significant deterioration over the rest of the 20 th century. However, the decline over most of the 20 th century was neither continuous nor was it distributed evenly among different commodity groups. The far-reaching changes that the world economy underwent around 1920 and again around 1979 led to a stepwise deterioration which, over the long term, was reflected in roughly a halving of real commodity prices. Tropical agriculture fared the worst, whereas minerals had the best performance, with non-tropical agriculture in an intermediate situation. RESUMENEste ensayo muestra que hubo una mejoría en los términos de intercambio de trueque de los productos bá sicos a fines del siglo XIX y comienzos del XX, seguido por un deterioro significativo en el resto del siglo XX. Sin embargo, el deterioro durante la mayor parte del siglo XX no fue continuo ni se distribuyó en forma homogénea en diferentes grupos de productos. Los cambios de largo alcance que experimentó la economía mundial en torno a 1920 y nuevamente a 1979 se reflejaron en una caída escalonada, que a largo plazo redujo los precios reales de productos bá sicos aproximadamente a la mitad. La agricultura tropical experimentó el peor desempeñ o y la minería el mejor, con la agricultura no tropical en una situació n intermedia. El incremento de los precios que se experimentó en la primera década del siglo XXI puede ser el inicio de una nueva fase de alza de larga duració n, pero es demasiado temprano para saberlo.Palabras clave: Productos bá sicos, términos de intercambio, hipó tesis de Prebisch-Singer, cambios estructurales

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Section: The P-s Hypothesismentioning

confidence: 99%

The terms of trade for commodities since the mid-19^thcentury

Ocampo¹,

Parra-Lancourt²

2010

RHE / JILAEH

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show abstract

“…Good examples of the former approach include Maxwell (1999); Heap (2005) and (2007); Radetzki (2006);and Tilton (2006). Examples of times series econometrics approaches include Cuddington and Urzu´a (1989); Deaton and Miller (1995); Cashin and McDermott (2002) ;Cuddington, Ludema, and Jayasuriya (2007); and Gilbert (2007). A number of authors have analyzed the movement of metal prices over the business cycle as well as co-movements among commodity prices (see Labys, Achouch, and Terraza, 1999;McDermott, Cashin, and Scott, 1999;and Pindyck and Rotemberg, 1990).…”

Section: Motivation and Backgroundmentioning

confidence: 99%

Super Cycles in Real Metals Prices?

Cuddington¹,

Jerrett²

2008

IMF Staff Pap

149

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“…It is not easy to estimate the trend components of the primary commodity prices because the prices are volatile and the changes in their trends, if any, are relatively small; see Cashin and McDermott (2002). Furthermore, Deaton (1999) remarked that "commodity prices lack in trend."…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%