The likely effects of climate change on agricultural land use in England and Wales

Hossell, J. E.; Jones, Philip; Marsh, John S.; Parry, Martin L.; Rehman, Tahir; Tranter, Richard

doi:10.1016/0016-7185(96)00005-x

Cited by 13 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…Under the influence of human activities, cropland in England and Wales was projected to reduce from 3.48 Mha in the mid-1980s to 2.07 Mha in 2060. While under the climate scenarios from Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, and United Kingdom Meteorological Office, the cropland areas were likely to be 2.23 Mha, 2.05 Mha and 2.18 Mha, respectively (Hossell et al, 1996). Briner et al (2012) found that, for the Visp region in the Swiss Alps, the cropland loss from economic change (147 ha) was projected to be larger than that from climate change (116 ha).…”

Section: Integrated Contributions Of Climate Change and Human Activitmentioning

confidence: 99%

Progress on quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change and human activities on cropland change

2016

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Abstract:It is important to study the contributions of climate change and human activities to cropland changes in the fields of both climate change and land use change. Relationships between cropland changes and driving forces were qualitatively studied in most of the previous researches. However, the quantitative assessments of the contributions of climate change and human activities to cropland changes are needed to be explored for a better understanding of the dynamics of land use changes. We systematically reviewed the methods of identifying the contributions of climate change and human activities to cropland changes at quantitative aspects, including model analysis, mathematical statistical method, framework analysis, index assessment and difference comparison. Progress of the previous researches on quantitative evaluation of the contributions was introduced. Then we discussed four defects in the assessment of the contributions of climate change and human activities. For example, the methods were lack of comprehensiveness, and the data need to be more accurate and abundant. In addition, the scale was single and the explanations were biased. Moreover, we concluded a clue about quantitative approach to assess the contributions from synthetically aspect to specific driving forces. Finally, the solutions of the future researches on data, scale and explanation were proposed.

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Section: Integrated Contributions Of Climate Change and Human Activitmentioning

confidence: 99%

Progress on quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change and human activities on cropland change

2016

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“…Within each model land class, three major land types are distinguished: arable/grass ley, permanent pasture and rough grazing. The CEH land classes therefore determine the geographical resolution of LUAM outputs (see, for example, Hossell et al, 1995Hossell et al, , 1996Jones et al, 1995;.…”

Section: Land Use Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling the likely impact of healthy eating guidelines on agricultural production and land use in England and Wales

Arnoult¹,

Jones

Tranter

et al. 2010

Land Use Policy

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“…The spatial analysis is based on identifying the climate and all the significant soil types within a 5 × 5 km grid and analysing each soil-climate combination. This is a more spatially detailed analysis than that of Hossell et al (1996) who use typical regional farms, but has the disadvantage that the analysis is very computer-intensive and thus timeconsuming. Similar ideas have been developed by Koomen et al (2005) to predict future agriculture in Holland, and Munier et al (2004) in Denmark where the objective was the impact on ecology and the environment.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

The impact of future socio-economic and climate changes on agricultural land use and the wider environment in East Anglia and North West England using a metamodel system

et al. 2008

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This paper describes a procedure to use a model interactively to investigate future land use by studying a wide range of scenarios defining climate, technological and socio-economic changes. A full model run of several hours has been replaced by a metamodel version which takes a few seconds, and provides the user with an immediate visual output and with the ability to examine easily which factors have the greatest effect. The Regional Impact Simulator combines a model of agricultural land use choices linked with models of urban growth, flooding risk, water quality and consequences for wildlife to estimate plausible futures of agricultural land on a timescale of 20-50 years. The model examines the East Anglian and North West regions of the United Kingdom at a grid resolution of 5 × 5 km, and for each scenario estimates the most likely cropping and its profitability at each location, and classifies land use as arable, intensive or extensive grassland or abandoned. From a modelling viewpoint the metamodel approach enables iteration. It is thus possible to determine how product prices change so that production meets demand. The results of the study show that in East Anglia cropping remains quite stable over a wide range of scenarios, though grassland is eliminated in scenarios with the 2050s High climate scenario -almost certainly due to the low yield in the drier conditions. In the North West there is a very much greater range of outcomes, though all scenarios suggest a reduction in grassland with the greatest in the 2050s High climate scenario combined with the "Regional Stewardship" (environmental) socio-economic scenario. The Climatic Change (2008) 90:57-88 effects of the predicted changes in land use on plant species showed suitability for species to vary greatly, particularly between the socio-economic scenarios, due to detrimental effects from increases in nitrogen fertilisation. A complete simulation with the Regional Impact Simulator takes around 15 seconds (computer-dependent), which users who responded felt was adequate or better than adequate. The main areas for future improvement, such as the speed of the system, user interaction and the accuracy and detail of the modelling, are considered.

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The likely effects of climate change on agricultural land use in England and Wales

Cited by 13 publications

References 11 publications

Progress on quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change and human activities on cropland change

Progress on quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change and human activities on cropland change

Modelling the likely impact of healthy eating guidelines on agricultural production and land use in England and Wales

The impact of future socio-economic and climate changes on agricultural land use and the wider environment in East Anglia and North West England using a metamodel system

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