The LCOE Evolution and Grid Parity Analysis of Centralized Solar Photovoltaic: A Case Study of Ningxia, China

Abstract

Achieving grid parity in 2021 is the goal of China’s photovoltaic development, which is not only on the user side but also on the generation side. Relevant studies indicated that distributed PV has realized grid parity basically in China, while centralized PV, which belongs to the generation side, still has some difficulties in achieving grid parity. Therefore, this paper takes Ningxia Province, which is abundant in solar resources, as the research object and compares LCOE with the traditional coal-fired price to analyze the situation of grid parity of the Pingluo project. It is found that this project cannot reach the goal of grid parity. Then, the future evolution of the local LCOE is analyzed, so as to determine the time of grid parity of Ningxia’s centralized PV power stations. In the calculation of LCOE, the presence and absence of environmental benefits and the general and optimistic forecast of cumulative installed capacity are combined into four scenarios. The results show that the centralized PV in Ningxia cannot achieve grid parity in 2021 under the four scenarios. However, in addition to the scenario that there are no environmental benefits and the cumulative installed capacity is generally forecasted and will reach grid parity of the generation side in 2023, the other three situations can achieve the goal in 2022. Moreover, the LCOE value is the lowest under the scenario of considering environmental benefits and the optimistic forecast of future installed capacity.

Subsidizing the Shift to Renewable Energy in Korea: A Levelized Cost Analysis and Computation of Required Subsidies

“…The goal of RPS is to increase the use of renewable energy and reduce reliance on fossil fuels, thereby reducing greenhouse gas emissions and mitigating the impacts of climate change (Cai et al, 2019; Kong et al, 2022; Kwon, 2018). FiT is a policy mechanism that provides financial incentives to renewable energy producers by guaranteeing a fixed price for every unit of electricity they feed into the grid (Jenner et al, 2013; Mu et al, 2021).…”

“…China installed a record 136 GW of new renewable energy capacity in 2020, accounting for more than half of global additions, with wind accounting for 72 GW and solar accounting for 49 GW (International Renewable Energy Agency [IRENA], 2021). This was largely due to the implementation of the FiT scheme, which provided financial incentives for the development of renewable energy projects and encouraged investment in the sector (Mu et al, 2021).…”