The last interglacial climate: comparing direct and indirect impacts of insolation changes

Pedersen, Rasmus A.; Langen, Peter L.; Vinther, Bo M.

doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3274-5

Cited by 31 publications

(41 citation statements)

References 75 publications

(123 reference statements)

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“…The simulated preindustrial climate has an extensive Arctic sea ice cover and a related lack of deep convection in the Labrador Sea. This contributes further to the Eemian North Atlantic warming which, despite regional agreement, is larger than suggested by proxy reconstructions in the central North Atlantic (see detailed description in Pedersen et al, 2016b).…”

Section: Experimental Designmentioning

confidence: 89%

“…Vegetation is similarly kept at present-day values. Combined with the fixed SST and sea ice conditions, this means that our experiments do not include any additional feedbacks from the ocean, vegetation or ice sheet geometry (as discussed in Pedersen et al, 2016b).…”

Section: Model Configurationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Figure 2 depicts sea ice concentration and SST anomalies in the coupled simulations from Pedersen et al (2016b), indicating the differences between the sea surface boundary conditions employed here. The sea ice reduction is primarily manifested as a northward retreat of the ice edge; the sea ice concentration in the central Arctic is largely unchanged.…”

Section: Experimental Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the coupled simulations from Pedersen et al (2016b), the induced insolation forcing leads to sea ice retreat and increasing SSTs across high northern latitudes. Figure 2 depicts sea ice concentration and SST anomalies in the coupled simulations from Pedersen et al (2016b), indicating the differences between the sea surface boundary conditions employed here.…”

Section: Experimental Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…An experiment with Eemian (125 ka) conditions ("iL+oL", full Eemian experiment) is compared to a preindustrial control climate state ("iP+oP"). The simulations are forced with GHGs and insolation from the respective periods along with prescribed SST and sea ice concentration (SIC) obtained from fully coupled model experiments with identical GHGs and insolation (the coupled simulations are described in Pedersen et al, 2016b). Aiming to disentangle the direct impact of the insolation changes and the indirect impact of changed sea surface conditions (SST and SIC), we have designed two hybrid experiments: the first experiment is forced by Eemian insolation and preindustrial sea surface conditions ("iL+oP", insolation-only), and the second is conversely forced by preindustrial insolation and Eemian sea surface conditions ("iP+oL", ocean-only).…”

Section: Experimental Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Greenland during the last interglacial: the relative importance of insolation and oceanic changes

Pedersen¹,

Langen²,

Vinther³

2016

Clim. Past

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Abstract. Insolation changes during the Eemian (the last interglacial period, 129 000-116 000 years before present) resulted in warmer than present conditions in the Arctic region. The NEEM ice core record suggests warming of 8 ± 4 K in northwestern Greenland based on stable water isotopes. Here we use general circulation model experiments to investigate the causes of the Eemian warming in Greenland. Simulations of the atmospheric response to combinations of Eemian insolation and preindustrial oceanic conditions and vice versa are used to disentangle the impacts of the insolation change and the related changes in sea surface temperatures and sea ice conditions. The changed oceanic conditions cause warming throughout the year, prolonging the impact of the summertime insolation increase. Consequently, the oceanic conditions cause an annual mean warming of 2 K at the NEEM site, whereas the insolation alone causes an insignificant change. Taking the precipitation changes into account, however, the insolation and oceanic changes cause more comparable increases in the precipitation-weighted temperature, implying that both contributions are important for the ice core record at the NEEM site. The simulated Eemian precipitation-weighted warming of 2.4 K at the NEEM site is low compared to the ice core reconstruction, partially due to missing feedbacks related to ice sheet changes and an extensive sea ice cover. Surface mass balance calculations with an energy balance model further indicate that the combination of temperature and precipitation anomalies leads to potential mass loss in the north and southwestern parts of the ice sheet. The oceanic conditions favor increased accumulation in the southeast, while the insolation appears to be the dominant cause of the expected ice sheet reduction. Consequently, the Eemian is not a suitable analogue for future ice sheet changes.

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Section: Experimental Designmentioning

confidence: 89%

Section: Model Configurationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Experimental Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Experimental Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Experimental Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Greenland during the last interglacial: the relative importance of insolation and oceanic changes

Pedersen¹,

Langen²,

Vinther³

2016

Clim. Past

Self Cite

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Quaternary climatic fluctuations and resulting climatically suitable areas for Eurasian owlets

Koparde

Mehta

Mukherjee

et al. 2019

Ecology and Evolution

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Aim The nested pattern in the geographical distribution of three Indian owlets, resulting in a gradient of endemicity, is hypothesized to be an impact of historical climate change. In current time, the Forest Owlet Athene blewitti is endemic to central India, and its range is encompassed within the ranges of the Jungle Owlet Glaucidium radiatum (distributed through South Asia) and Spotted Owlet Athene brama (distributed through Iran, South and Southeast Asia). Another phylogenetically close species, Little Owl Athene noctua, which is largely Palearctic in distribution, is hypothesized to have undergone severe range reduction during the Last Glacial Maximum, showing a postglacial expansion. The present study tests hypotheses on the possible role of Quaternary climatic fluctuations in shaping geographical ranges of owlets. Methods We used primary field observations, open access data, and climatic niche modeling to construct climatic niches of four owlets for four periods, the Last Interglacial (~120–140 Ka), Last Glacial Maximum (~22 Ka), Mid‐Holocene (~6 Ka), and Current (1960–1990). We performed climatic niche extent, breadth, and overlap analyses and tested if climatically suitable areas for owlets are nested in a relatively stable climate. Results Climatically suitable areas for all owlets examined underwent cycles of expansion and reduction or a gradual expansion or reduction since the Last Interglacial. The Indian owlets show significant climatic niche overlap in the current period. Climatically suitable areas for Little Owl shifted southwards during the Last Glacial Maximum and expanded northwards in the postglaciation period. For each owlet, the modeled climatic niches were nested in climatically stable areas. Main Conclusions The study highlights the impact of Quaternary climate change in shaping the present distribution of owlets. This is relevant to the current scenario of climate change and global warming and can help inform conservation strategies, especially for the extremely range‐restricted Forest Owlet.

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Global River Discharge and Floods in the Warmer Climate of the Last Interglacial

Scussolini

Eilander

Sutanudjaja

et al. 2020

Preprint

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We investigate hydrology during a past climate slightly warmer than the present: the last interglacial (LIG). With daily output of preindustrial and LIG simulations from eight new climate models we force hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB and in turn hydrodynamic model CaMa-Flood. Compared to preindustrial, annual mean LIG runoff, discharge, and 100-yr flood volume are considerably larger in the Northern Hemisphere, by 14%, 25%, and 82%, respectively. Anomalies are negative in the Southern Hemisphere. In some boreal regions, LIG runoff and discharge are lower despite higher precipitation, due to the higher temperatures and evaporation. LIG discharge is much higher for the Niger, Congo, Nile, Ganges, Irrawaddy, and Pearl and lower for the Mississippi, Saint Lawrence, Amazon, Paraná, Orange, Zambesi, Danube, and Ob. Discharge is seasonally postponed in tropical rivers affected by monsoon changes. Results agree with published proxies on the sign of discharge anomaly in 15 of 23 sites where comparison is possible. Plain Language Summary It is still uncertain how the water cycle will respond to a warmer climate in the coming decades. To increase our understanding of the relationships between climate and hydrology, we study the past climate of the last interglacial, which was slightly warmer than the present. We present the results of a modeling approach, showing that while Northern Hemisphere precipitation was higher during the last interglacial, discharge of rivers was even higher, and floods were even larger. On the contrary, in the Southern Hemisphere precipitation, discharge and floods were lower. We show that, for some regions, precipitation, discharge, and floods do not have the same direction of change. The seasonal timing of discharge also changes for some large basins of the Northern Hemisphere. Finally, for 23 sites, we compare our results to geological evidence. These results form a useful term of comparison to both projections of the future and geological studies of past hydrology.

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The last interglacial climate: comparing direct and indirect impacts of insolation changes

Cited by 31 publications

References 75 publications

Greenland during the last interglacial: the relative importance of insolation and oceanic changes

Greenland during the last interglacial: the relative importance of insolation and oceanic changes

Quaternary climatic fluctuations and resulting climatically suitable areas for Eurasian owlets

Global River Discharge and Floods in the Warmer Climate of the Last Interglacial

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