The lag dæmon: Hysteresis in rebuilding landscapes and implications for biodiversity futures

Nally, Ralph Charles Mac

doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2007.06.004

Cited by 34 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 60 publications

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“…Revegetation in fertile areas offers multiple benefits. Tree growth rates will be faster than on poor soils (Mac Nally, 2008) and warm-season flowering of eucalypts associated with these sites (e.g. yellow box Eucalyptus melliodora, river red gum Eucalyptus camaldulensis) will increase the temporal complementarity of nectar resources across the region.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Collapse of an avifauna: climate change appears to exacerbate habitat loss and degradation

Nally

Bennett

Thomson

et al. 2009

Diversity and Distributions

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Aim We characterized changes in reporting rates and abundances of bird species over a period of severe rainfall deficiency and increasing average temperatures. We also measured flowering in eucalypts, which support large numbers of nectarivores characteristic of the region.Location A 30,000‐km2 region of northern Victoria, Australia, consisting of limited amounts of remnant native woodlands embedded in largely agricultural landscapes.Methods There were three sets of monitoring studies, pitched at regional (survey programmes in 1995–97, 2004–05 and 2006–08), landscape (2002–03 and 2006–07) and site (1997–2008 continuously) scales. Bird survey techniques used a standard 2‐ha, 20‐min count method. We used Bayesian analyses of reporting rates to document statistically changes in the avifauna through time at each spatial scale.Results Bird populations in the largest remnants of native vegetation (up to 40,000 ha), some of which have been declared as national parks in the past decade, experienced similar declines to those in heavily cleared landscapes. All categories of birds (guilds based on foraging substrate, diet, nest site; relative mobility; geographical distributions) were affected similarly. We detected virtually no bird breeding in the latest survey periods. Eucalypt flowering has declined significantly over the past 12 years of drought.Main conclusions Declines in the largest woodland remnants commensurate with those in cleared landscapes suggest that reserve systems may not be relied upon to sustain species under climate change. We attribute population declines to low breeding success due to reduced food. Resilience of bird populations in this woodland system might be increased by active management to enhance habitat quality in existing vegetation and restoration of woodland in the more fertile parts of landscapes.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Collapse of an avifauna: climate change appears to exacerbate habitat loss and degradation

Nally

Bennett

Thomson

et al. 2009

Diversity and Distributions

Self Cite

165

197

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“…As a consequence of loss of habitat, the MLR has lost, and is expected to continue to lose, a significant proportion of its avifauna (Ford and Howe 1980;Ford et al 2001;Possingham and Field 2001). Although there has been increasing effort at revegetation and restoration, the extent and condition of habitat may not have yet stabilised (Vesk and Mac Nally 2006;Mac Nally 2008). There is often a time-lag between habitat degradation or clearance and local avian extinction (Martin and McIntyre 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Paying the extinction debt: woodland birds in the Mount Lofty Ranges, South Australia

Szabo

Vesk

Baxter

et al. 2011

Emu - Austral Ornithology

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Approximately 90% of the original woodlands of the Mount Lofty Ranges of South Australia has been cleared, modified or fragmented, most severely in the last 60 years, and affecting the avifauna dependent on native vegetation. This study identifies which woodland-dependent species are still declining in two different habitats, Pink Gum-Blue Gum woodland and Stringybark woodland. We analyse the Mount Lofty Ranges Woodland Bird Long-Term Monitoring Dataset for 1999-2007, to look for changes in abundance of 59 species. We use logistic regression of prevalence on lists in a Bayesian framework, and List Length Analysis to control for variation in detectability. Compared with Reporting Rate Analysis, a more traditional approach, List Length Analysis provides tighter confidence intervals by accounting for changing detectability. Several common species were declining significantly. Increasers were generally large-bodied generalists. Many birds have already disappeared from this modified and naturally isolated woodland island, and our results suggest that more specialist insectivores are likely to follow. The Mount Lofty Ranges can be regarded as a 'canary landscape' for temperate woodlands elsewhere in Australiawithout immediate action their bird communities are likely to follow the trajectory of the Mount Lofty Ranges avifauna. Alternatively, with extensive habitat restoration and management, we could avoid paying the extinction debt.

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“…Restoration planning poses a similar challenge to systematic planning for reserve selection (Margules and Pressey 2000, Cabeza and Moilanen 2001, Pressey et al 2007, Wilson et al 2007) because sites are chosen to maximize one or more biodiversity objectives (or objective functions), such as abundance or persistence of multiple species across landscapes (Moilanen et al 2005, Nicholson et al 2006, Mac Nally 2008). An important difference is that restoration planning must consider locations that currently do not provide habitat (e.g., cleared land) but would do so in the future given sufficient and timely actions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Where and when to revegetate: a quantitative method for scheduling landscape reconstruction

Thomson

Moilanen

Vesk

et al. 2009

Ecological Applications

147

145

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Restoration of native vegetation is required in many regions of the world, but determining priority locations for revegetation is a complex problem. We consider the problem of determining spatial and temporal priorities for revegetation to maximize habitat for 62 bird species within a heavily cleared agricultural region, 11000 km2 in area. We show how a reserve-selection framework can be applied to a complex, large-scale restoration-planning problem to account for multi-species objectives and connectivity requirements at a spatial extent and resolution relevant to management. Our approach explicitly accounts for time lags in planting and development of habitat resources, which is intended to avoid future population bottlenecks caused by delayed provision of critical resources, such as tree hollows. We coupled species-specific models of expected habitat quality and fragmentation effects with the dynamics of habitat suitability following replanting to produce species-specific maps for future times. Spatial priorities for restoration were determined by ranking locations (150-m grid cells) by their expected contribution to species habitat through time using the conservation planning tool, "Zonation." We evaluated solutions by calculating expected trajectories of habitat availability for each species. We produced a spatially explicit revegetation schedule for the region that resulted in a balanced increase in habitat for all species. Priority areas for revegetation generally were clustered around existing vegetation, although not always. Areas on richer soils and with high rainfall were more highly ranked, reflecting their potential to support high-quality habitats that have been disproportionately cleared for agriculture. Accounting for delayed development of habitat resources altered the rank-order of locations in the derived revegetation plan and led to improved expected outcomes for fragmentation-sensitive species. This work demonstrates the potential for systematic restoration planning at large scales that accounts for multiple objectives, which is urgently needed by land and natural resource managers.

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The lag dæmon: Hysteresis in rebuilding landscapes and implications for biodiversity futures

Cited by 34 publications

References 60 publications

Collapse of an avifauna: climate change appears to exacerbate habitat loss and degradation

Collapse of an avifauna: climate change appears to exacerbate habitat loss and degradation

Paying the extinction debt: woodland birds in the Mount Lofty Ranges, South Australia

Where and when to revegetate: a quantitative method for scheduling landscape reconstruction

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