The Justinianic Plague Revisited

Stathakopoulos, Dionysios

doi:10.4324/9781315250809-4

Cited by 9 publications

(12 citation statements)

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“…Only these data can describe the spatial and temporal variation in volcanic aerosol emission forcing from one event to another and allow them to be compared to accounts from the regional to continental scale. Nevertheless, we endorse the need of combining the data of climate forcings with thorough analyses of political and economic structures 15 , 16 , 49 , 50 of which determinants have almost certainly contributed to the event. Such a comparison would reveal the relative impact(s) of climatic forcing on agriculture, human health, urbanisation and movement during the first millennium – a period considered to contain the main ‘hinges’ of human history 55 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 80%

“…The years of strongest sunlight deficiency coincides remarkably with the years of Justinianic plague (AD 541–544), the first historically recorded outbreak of true plague that ravaged the Mediterranean world 9 , 49 , 50 . After the first epidemic that broke out in Constantinople, the eastern Roman Empire, the pandemic spread widely to the entire Mediterranean and central Europe, as north as Finland 51 , killing tens of millions until the mid-8th century 52 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

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Volcanic dust veils from sixth century tree-ring isotopes linked to reduced irradiance, primary production and human health

Helama

Arppe

Uusitalo

et al. 2018

Sci Rep

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The large volcanic eruptions of AD 536 and 540 led to climate cooling and contributed to hardships of Late Antiquity societies throughout Eurasia, and triggered a major environmental event in the historical Roman Empire. Our set of stable carbon isotope records from subfossil tree rings demonstrates a strong negative excursion in AD 536 and 541–544. Modern data from these sites show that carbon isotope variations are driven by solar radiation. A model based on sixth century isotopes reconstruct an irradiance anomaly for AD 536 and 541–544 of nearly three standard deviations below the mean value based on modern data. This anomaly can be explained by a volcanic dust veil reducing solar radiation and thus primary production threatening food security over a multitude of years. We offer a hypothesis that persistently low irradiance contributed to remarkably simultaneous outbreaks of famine and Justinianic plague in the eastern Roman Empire with adverse effects on crop production and photosynthesis of the vitamin D in human skin and thus, collectively, human health. Our results provide a hitherto unstudied proxy for exploring the mechanisms of ‘volcanic summers’ to demonstrate the post-eruption deficiencies in sunlight and to explain the human consequences during such calamity years.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 80%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Volcanic dust veils from sixth century tree-ring isotopes linked to reduced irradiance, primary production and human health

Helama

Arppe

Uusitalo

et al. 2018

Sci Rep

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“…The outbreak of Justinianic plague in 541 CE immediately precedes or coincides with the period of decline in commercial-scale Negev viticulture. Although the demographic effects of the plague are a matter of debate ( 99 , 100 ), conservative demographic estimates suggest ∼20% population decline in the immediate aftermath of the first outbreak in Constantinople ( 101 – 103 ). Maximalist estimates reach 50% population decline for the period 541 to 700 CE ( 104 ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The rise and fall of viticulture in the Late Antique Negev Highlands reconstructed from archaeobotanical and ceramic data

Fuks

Bar-Oz

Tepper

et al. 2020

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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The international scope of the Mediterranean wine trade in Late Antiquity raises important questions concerning sustainability in an ancient international economy and offers a valuable historical precedent to modern globalization. Such questions involve the role of intercontinental commerce in maintaining sustainable production within important supply regions and the vulnerability of peripheral regions believed to have been especially sensitive to environmental and political disturbances. We provide archaeobotanical evidence from trash mounds at three sites in the central Negev Desert, Israel, unraveling the rise and fall of viticulture over the second to eighth centuries of the common era (CE). Using quantitative ceramic data obtained in the same archaeological contexts, we further investigate connections between Negev viticulture and circum-Mediterranean trade. Our findings demonstrate interrelated growth in viticulture and involvement in Mediterranean trade reaching what appears to be a commercial scale in the fourth to mid-sixth centuries. Following a mid-sixth century peak, decline of this system is evident in the mid- to late sixth century, nearly a century before the Islamic conquest. These findings closely correspond with other archaeological evidence for social, economic, and urban growth in the fourth century and decline centered on the mid-sixth century. Contracting markets were a likely proximate cause for the decline; possible triggers include climate change, plague, and wider sociopolitical developments. In long-term historical perspective, the unprecedented commercial florescence of the Late Antique Negev appears to have been unsustainable, reverting to an age-old pattern of smaller-scale settlement and survival–subsistence strategies within a time frame of about two centuries.

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“…For studies that have adopted larger or comparative perspectives, see Biraben 1975;Borsch 2005;Sussman 2011. There is also a substantial body of literature devoted to the First Pandemic, including but not limited to Biraben and Le Goff 1969;Dols 1974;Conrad 1981Conrad , 1982Conrad , and 2000Christensen 1993;Stathakopoulos 2000 andvan Ess 2001;Little 2007. 8 For this conventionally accepted periodization, see Little 2011.…”

Section: The Historical Fiction Of Epidemiological Boundariesmentioning

confidence: 99%

New Science and Old Sources: Why the Ottoman Experience of Plague Matters

Varlık¹

2015

Pandemic Disease in the Medieval World

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She studies the early modern history of medicine, epidemic diseases, and the rise of public health in the Mediterranean world. She is the author of several articles and her first book, entitled Plague and Empire in the Early Modern Mediterranean World: The Ottoman Experience, 1347-1600, is forthcoming from Cambridge University Press. She is also editing a collection of articles entitled Plague and Contagion in the Islamic Mediterranean (contracted by Ashgate Press). In conjunction with this research, she teaches courses on epidemic diseases in world history, with a particular focus on plague. In her teaching, she incorporates research findings from bioarcheology, genetics, and climate history. She is the recipient of an NEH Fellowship for study at the American Research Institute in Turkey, a Senior Fellowship from Koç University's Research Center for Anatolian Civilizations, and a Turkish Cultural Foundation Post-Doctoral Fellowship. She holds a PhD from the University of Chicago.

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The Justinianic Plague Revisited

Cited by 9 publications

References 0 publications

Volcanic dust veils from sixth century tree-ring isotopes linked to reduced irradiance, primary production and human health

Volcanic dust veils from sixth century tree-ring isotopes linked to reduced irradiance, primary production and human health

The rise and fall of viticulture in the Late Antique Negev Highlands reconstructed from archaeobotanical and ceramic data

New Science and Old Sources: Why the Ottoman Experience of Plague Matters

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