The Justinianic Plague: An inconsequential pandemic?

Abstract

Existing mortality estimates assert that the Justinianic Plague (circa 541 to 750 CE) caused tens of millions of deaths throughout the Mediterranean world and Europe, helping to end antiquity and start the Middle Ages. In this article, we argue that this paradigm does not fit the evidence. We examine a series of independent quantitative and qualitative datasets that are directly or indirectly linked to demographic and economic trends during this two-century period: Written sources, legislation, coinage, papyri, inscriptions, pollen, ancient DNA, and mortuary archaeology. Individually or together, they fail to support the maximalist paradigm: None has a clear independent link to plague outbreaks and none supports maximalist reconstructions of late antique plague. Instead of large-scale, disruptive mortality, when contextualized and examined together, the datasets suggest continuity across the plague period. Although demographic, economic, and political changes continued between the 6th and 8th centuries, the evidence does not support the now commonplace claim that the Justinianic Plague was a primary causal factor of them.

Decarceration and community re-entry in the COVID-19 era

“…[46][47][48][49]51,52 Additionally, amid this exponential increase in cases and the casefatality rate among incarcerated people, 39 current federal guidance continues to withhold expanded testing approaches that could provide invaluable guidance for population management strategies inside correctional facilities. 28 The eighth amendment of the US Constitution clearly guarantees freedom from cruel and unusual punish ments; however, the illness and deaths caused by COVID19 in prisons show inherent cruelties within the correctional systems of the USA. 47 A swift and coordinated response by the federal government, US states, and local authorities to reduce the transmission inside these facilities could have prevented the more than 880 deaths due to COVID19 in correctional facilities.…”

The rise and fall of viticulture in the Late Antique Negev Highlands reconstructed from archaeobotanical and ceramic data

“…On a number of occasions, it had a devastating short-term effect" (108). Similarly, in the most comprehensive critical review of the evidence for, and effects of, Justinianic plague, the authors accept that "[s]ome regions may have suffered higher mortality at certain times-such as Constantinople during the first outbreak" (100). In Rome, too, a combination of war and plague caused significant depopulation in the sixth century, although Rome's population decline began much earlier (109,110).…”

“…The outbreak of Justinianic plague in 541 CE immediately precedes or coincides with the period of decline in commercial-scale Negev viticulture. Although the demographic effects of the plague are a matter of debate ( 99 , 100 ), conservative demographic estimates suggest ∼20% population decline in the immediate aftermath of the first outbreak in Constantinople ( 101 – 103 ). Maximalist estimates reach 50% population decline for the period 541 to 700 CE ( 104 ).…”

Past pandemics and climate variability across the Mediterranean

“…Cryptic references to Sumerian, Hittite and Biblical disease outbreaks aside, many historians consider this Athenian Plague, 430–27 BCE, among the first interregional disease outbreaks, pandemics, to affect the Mediterranean. The Antonine, 165–89 CE, Cyprianic, 250–70 CE, and Justinianic, 541–44 CE, plagues (Morgan 1994 ; Gilliam 1961 , 1996 ; Greenberg 2003 ; Harper 2015 ; Sarris 2002 ; Mordechai et al 2019 ) followed. Eight centuries then passed before the Black Death, 1346–53 CE, the greatest pandemic in recorded world history, quickly killed tens of millions of people across the Mediterranean and far beyond (Biraben 1975 ; Benedictow 2004 ; Green 2014 ).…”