The Iraq War, Partisanship, and Candidate Attributes: Variation in Partisan Swing in the 2006 U.S. House Elections

Grose, Christian R.; Oppenheimer, Bruce I.

doi:10.3162/036298007782398495

Cited by 85 publications

(50 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…In so doing, our results also suggest a mechanism capable of explaining the observed cleavages in opinion and voting behavior between residents of high-and low-casualty communities documented in prior scholarship (e.g., Althaus, Bramlet, and Gimpel 2011;Gartner, Segura, and Wilkening 1997;Grose and Oppenheimer 2007;Hayes and Myers 2009;Karol and Miguel 2007;Kriner and Shen 2010). Rather than focusing exclusively on elite consensus versus dissension, we demonstrate that the variation in war policy cues transmitted to constituents strongly correlates with geographic variance in Americans' retrospective and prospective public policy preferences.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 77%

Responding to War on Capitol Hill: Battlefield Casualties, Congressional Response, and Public Support for the War in Iraq

Kriner

Shen

2013

American J Political Sci

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Recent scholarship argues that how members of Congress respond to an ongoing war significantly influences the president's strategic calculations. However, the literature is comparably silent on the factors influencing the public positions members take during the course of a military venture. Accounting for both national and local electoral incentives, we develop a theory positing that partisanship conditions congressional responses to casualties in the aggregate, but that all members respond to casualties in their constituency by increasingly criticizing the war. Analyzing an original database of more than 7,500 content-coded House floor speeches on the Iraq War, we find strong support for both hypotheses. We also find that Democrats from high-casualty constituencies were significantly more likely to cast antiwar roll-call votes than their peers. Finally, we show that this significant variation in congressional antiwar position taking strongly correlates with geographic differences in public support for war. 157

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 77%

Responding to War on Capitol Hill: Battlefield Casualties, Congressional Response, and Public Support for the War in Iraq

Kriner

Shen

2013

American J Political Sci

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“…Therefore, one reason for the previous inconsistent results found in studies of war images and opinion may be that they failed to distinguish between conventionalized and unconventionalized photographs. Second, studies have established the importance of local casualties for understanding wartime opinion (Gartner and Segura 2000; Grose and Oppenheimer 2007), but the process through which information from foreign battlefields influences people remains unclear—especially for those not directly connected to wartime losses (Gartner 2008b). Local media frequently show conventionalized images of local losses, such as military funerals (Gartner 2004).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…2007; Baum and Groeling 2009a,b). I anticipate that individuals’ partisanship not only affects support for a conflict (Baum 2002; Berinsky 2007; Grose and Oppenheimer 2007), but also plays a role in shaping responses to war imagery (Aday 2010). In the United States, Republican reactions to images of a Republican led war are likely to vary systematically from Democrat reactions (Jacobson 2008).…”

Section: Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While research shows that a conflict’s casualties can influence its news coverage (Gartner 2004), elections (Grose and Oppenheimer 2007), and public opinion (Gartner and Segura 2000; Gartner 2008a), studies surprisingly find consistently weak evidence for the link between war imagery and individual opinion (Gilboa 2005; Pfau, Haigh, Fifrick, Holl, Tedesco, Cope, Nunnally, Schiess, Preston, Roszkowski, and Martin 2006; Pfau, Haigh, Shannon, Tones, Mercurio, Williams, Binstock, Diaz, Dillard, Browne, Elder, Reed, Eggers, and Melendez 2008). Most wars start with a rally of public support that erodes over time (Gaines, Kuklinski, Quirk, Peyton, and Verkullen 2007; Kam and Ramos 2008).…”

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confidence: 99%

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On Behalf of a Grateful Nation: Conventionalized Images of Loss and Individual Opinion Change in War1

Gartner

2011

International Studies Quarterly

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Conventionalized images of wartime loss picture scripted, ceremonial events, such as flag-draped coffins off-loaded from planes or soldiers handing a triangular folded flag to grieving relatives saying, ''on behalf of a grateful nation.'' In comparison, unconventionalized war photographs, such as battlefield pictures, present more chaotic, less standardized images. I develop a theory of wartime media that examines how qualities of both the signal (whether photographs deal with military loss or militarism, and whether images employ conventionalized or unconventionalized imagery) and the receiver (the partisanship of the individual) influence individual opinion. I anticipate that viewing conventionalized images of loss will affect the likelihood that individuals shift from supporting to opposing a conflict and that partisanship can mitigate this effect. Results from analyses of seven experimental studies with 1,769 subjects and varied research designs strongly support the theory, finding that qualities of the signal and individual (and their interaction) influence the likelihood of wartime opinion change. These findings help to explain previous weak results linking wartime photography and public opinion, improve our understanding of wartime public opinion dynamics, and speak directly to current policy debates.It is the photographs that give one the vivid realization of what actually took place. Words don't do it.Donald Rumsfeld, U.S. Secretary of Defense 2 Despite significant advancements in our understanding of the dynamics of wartime and crisis politics (Geva,

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“…In this paper we consider the overall ideological distance between candidate and voter as a proxy for an underlying issue dimension. We also consider other factors in voter decision-making, namely the economy (Fiorina, 1981;Lewis-Beck & Nadeau, 2009;Nadeau & Lewis-Beck, 2001;Nadeau et al, 2002;Powell & Whitten, 1993) and the Iraq war (Grose & Oppenheimer, 2007;Kriner & Shen, 2007). Retrospective voting on the economy occurs when voters punish the party of the outgoing president if they view the national economy poorly, and reward that party if they view the national economy more positively.…”

Section: The Relative Impact Of Race Gender Issues and Economic Rementioning

confidence: 98%

Plus ça Change: Race, Gender, and Issue Retrospections in the 2008 US Presidential Election

Grose

Husser

Yoshinaka

2010

Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties

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A BSTRACT What role did race and gender play in vote choice for US president in 2008?With an African-American Democratic presidential nominee and a female Republican vice presidential nominee, were the black-white racial gap and the gender gap different in 2008 than in previous years? We find that the racial gap between black and white voters was larger in 2008 than it was in three of the four previous presidential elections, but not significantly larger than the gap in 1996 when white Democrat Bill Clinton won reelection. This gap is still present after we include control variables. On the other hand, the apparent gender gap whereby women are more likely than men to support Democratic candidates goes away once we include controls. Other factors -namely Iraq retrospections, ideological voting, and partisan identification -played a role as large or larger in citizen vote choice as did race or gender in the 2008 general election. Even though a voter's race was a key predictor in 2008 and even though there may be a widening racial gap, it is important not to overstate the role of race relative to other well-known predictors of the vote.Did US voters in the 2008 general election for president divide along racial and gender lines, and were those divides larger in 2008 than in recent US presidential elections? 1 Even after controlling for predictors of the vote such as partisanship, did a voter's race or gender have an effect on vote choice? Were race and gender more important than other predictors, such as retrospective voting and partisanship, in influencing citizen vote choice? Because the 2008 election was the first to have an African-American major-party nominee and a female Republican vice presidential nominee, the desire to vote for a candidate who shares one's race or gender may have led more African Americans (and fewer whites or other minorities) to vote Democratic and more women (and fewer men) to vote Republican in 2008 than in years past. Thus, in 2008 there was the potential for a greater racial gap and a smaller gender gap relative to previous elections in which white males were nominated by both major parties.

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The Iraq War, Partisanship, and Candidate Attributes: Variation in Partisan Swing in the 2006 U.S. House Elections

Cited by 85 publications

References 22 publications

Responding to War on Capitol Hill: Battlefield Casualties, Congressional Response, and Public Support for the War in Iraq

Responding to War on Capitol Hill: Battlefield Casualties, Congressional Response, and Public Support for the War in Iraq

On Behalf of a Grateful Nation: Conventionalized Images of Loss and Individual Opinion Change in War1

Plus ça Change: Race, Gender, and Issue Retrospections in the 2008 US Presidential Election

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