Although GDP grew in the first quarter by 3.1 per cent (at an annualised rate), repeating the relatively strong growth seen in the first three quarters of 2018, our expectation continues to be that output growth in the US economy will slow. This was certainly the case in the second quarter, when GDP grew by 2 per cent, with fixed investment falling by 1.4 per cent in the quarter, recording the first quarterly fall since the final quarter of 2015. With exports also falling, by 5.7 per cent, net trade made a negative contribution to GDP growth.