The Interannual and Interdecadal Variability in Hurricane Activity

Lupo, Anthony R.

doi:10.5772/14598

Cited by 2 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 43 publications

(60 reference statements)

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“…Using bayesian multiple change point analysis, Zhao and Chu (2006) find decadal variation with change points in around 1982 and 1998, showing active periods in 1982-1998 and inactive eras in 1972-1981 or 1999-2003. There are more active TC years and more storms in PDO warm phase, especially for weaker storms. The effect of PDO on TC activities was single or synergistic through oceanic and atmospheric variables (Lupo 2011), which was similar to ENSO to some extent. Boucharel et al (2016) analyzed 1980-2012 seasonal ACE by empirical orthogonal functions analysis (EOF), indicating that the first two EOF modes are related to not only eastern and central Pacific ENSO, but also PDO.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 76%

“…The hurricanes data in ENP in 1970-2018 is HURDAT2, which comes from National Hurricanes Center (NHC) (Landsea and Franklin 2013). The data quality prior to 1970s is considered to be poorer because of the lack of satellite coverage and all hurricanes before that date were classified as a category one (e.g., Schultz 2007;Lupo 2011). Some of the weaker storms may be missing especially for the storms over the open ocean.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Both PDO signal and PDO-ENSO superposed signal affect interannual variation of TC frequency in ENP (Lupo et al 2008). When discussing ENSO effects under different phases of PDO, there are much more TCs during El Niño years than during La Niña years in the warm phase of PDO, but less (fuzzy) difference in the cold phase of PDO (Lupo 2011). However, previous studies have not separately discussed major hurricanes (MHs, categories 3-5 in the Saffir-Simpson scale) (Saffir 1977;Simpson and Riehl 1981).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition, Lupo (2011) divided ENP basin into four parts sub-basin by 20°N and 125°W according to the SST status with a bit of subjective. They found that the two southern parts sub-basin have significantly more hurricanes than northern sub-basins, and have more hurricanes in El Niño years.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Combined effects of ENSO and PDO on Activity of Major Hurricanes in Eastern North Pacific

Huang

Liu

Wang

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Major hurricanes (MHs) in the eastern North Pacific (ENP) in 1970-2018 were clustered into 3 categories with different quantity, intensity, lifetime, translation speed, track and large-scale environmental fields. MHs in all three clusters are more active in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) warm phase than cold phase period. There are two clusters that their relationship with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) were modulated by PDO. The first cluster generates and develops in the open ocean and has an increasing trend of annual frequency, which is more active during El Niño years than during La Niña years in the PDO cold phase, but equally active in the PDO warm phase. The second cluster generates in the nearshore and translate rapidly into the ocean, which is more active during La Niña years than during El Niño years in the PDO warm phase, but equally active in the PDO cold phase. The PDO modulation mainly result from that MHs are obviously active during La Niña years in the PDO warm phase, which can be explained by local warming sea surface temperature, lower vertical wind shear, increasing vorticity and weakening sinking branch of circulation like Hadley cell. Therefore, PDO modulation cannot be ignored when predict the activity of tropical cyclone in ENP, especially for MHs that enters the open ocean and threat the islands such as the Hawaiian Islands.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 76%

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%