The Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) has a dual-frame sample design that supplements a standard area-probability frame with a sample of observations drawn from statistical records derived from tax returns. The tax-based frame is stratified on the basis of a "wealth index" constructed largely from observed income flows, with the intent of heavily oversampling wealthy households. Although the SCF is not specifically designed to estimate wealth concentration, the design arguably provides sufficient support to enable such analysis with a reasonable level of credibility. Similar estimates may also be made by using tax-based data directly, as in [1], by using a construct very close to a key part of the SCF wealth index. Such an approach has appeal as a way of tapping a much larger set of information to improve SCF estimates. Not surprisingly, there are differences in the two approaches, largely as a result of conceptual differences or complications in the survey implementation. This paper focuses on the top 1 percent of the wealth distribution, the group most intensively covered by the SCF list sample and it explores the stability of the relationship between the patterns of concentration in the survey data and parallel patterns in tax-based estimates and considers how those patterns differ across survey participants, the full sample and the entire survey frame. In addition, the paper makes as series of recommendation for further research on the technical support of the survey.
JEL codes: C83, D31
The views expressed in this paper are the views of the author alone and they do not necessarily reflect the views of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or its staff. The author is grateful to all those whose work has made this paper possible, but particularly Fritz Scheuren, who as director of Statistics of Income at IRS first made it possible to use tax-return-derived data for the SCF sample design; Barry
1The Survey of Consumer Finances provides information on household wealth and its composition and relationship to other variables, on a common basis from 1989 to 2013. Because wealth is highly concentrated in the U.S., a survey that did not take special account of that situation would tend to produce very noisy (or even biased) estimates of values strongly influenced by the upper tail of the wealth distribution, such as means or concentration ratios. The SCF addresses this issue through the use of a list sample selected from statistical records derived from individual tax returns, as a supplement to a multistage area-probability sample. The list sample uses a proxy variable that supports oversampling of very wealthy households. That proxy and its relationship to net worth measured in the survey are the principal focus of this paper.The wealth proxy is a "wealth index" constructed from income flows and other variables available in the frame data for tax filers. The sample design assumes there is a mapping from the observed data to a wealth concept close enough to an actual measure of wealth approp...