The Influencing Factors of Exports of Sichuan under the Belt and Road Initiative: An Empirical Study Based on the Extended Trade Gravity Model

Abstract

This study investigates the influencing factors of exports in Sichuan Province in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative. Based on the panel data of Sichuan's exports to fifty-three countries along the Belt and Road from 2011 to 2022, this study tests eleven potential influencing factors using an expanded trade gravity model. And the results show that the economic development level of both Sichuan and the Belt and Road member countries have significant positive correlation with the export volume; while the distance, foreign merchant participation in Sichuan, exchange rate of RMB and human capital level of Sichuan are significantly negative. Moreover, the trade potential coefficient of each Belt and Road member country is calculated to decide the trade type. Lastly, the c onclusions and strategical suggestions are put up to further explore the trade potential with Belt and Road countries and expand Sichuans export volume.