The Influences of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the EL Niño/Southern Oscillation and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on Winter Precipitation in Ireland

Daultrey, Stuart

doi:10.1007/978-94-011-5676-9_12

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 42 publications

(51 reference statements)

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“…Variations in the NAO have a particularly pronounced effect on the weather experienced along the Atlantic coast. In these areas, there is a strong positive correlation between the winter rainfall and the NAOI but the correlations reported for inland areas in the U.K. are very much lower (Daultrey, 1996;Wilby et al, 2002). One question still to be resolved is the extent to which the trend towards positive NAOI values is related to global warming.…”

Section: The Observed Variations In the Weathermentioning

confidence: 95%

The impact of climate change on the physical characteristics of the larger lakes in the English Lake District

2007

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1. The larger lakes of the English Lake District have been the subject of intensive scientific study for more than 60 years. Year-to-year variations in the weather have recently been shown to have a major effect on their physical characteristics. The area is mild but very wet and the dynamics of the lakes are strongly influenced by the movement of weather systems across the Atlantic. 2. Here, we combine the results of long-term measurements and the projections from a Regional Climate Model (RCM) to assess the potential impact of climate change on the surface temperature and residence times of the lakes. 3. The RCM outputs used were produced by the U.K. Hadley Centre and are based on the IPCC 'A2' scenario for the emission of greenhouse gases. These suggest that winters in the area will be very much milder and wetter by the 2050s and that there will be a pronounced reduction in the summer rainfall.4. An analysis of the meteorological data acquired between 1940 and 2000 shows that there have been progressive increases in the winter air temperature and in the rainfall which are correlated with the long-term change in the North Atlantic Oscillation. The trends reported during the summer were less pronounced and were correlated with the increased frequency of anticyclonic days and a decrease in the frequency of westerly days in the British Isles. 5. A simple model of the year-to-year variations in surface temperatures showed that the highest winter temperatures were recorded in the deeper lakes and the highest summer temperatures in the lakes with the shallowest thermoclines. When this model was used to predict the surface temperatures of the lakes in the 2050s, the greatest winter increase (+1.08°C) was observed in the shallowest lake and the greatest summer increase (+2.18°C) in the lake with the shallowest thermocline. 6. The model used to estimate the seasonal variation in the residence time of the lakes showed that the most pronounced variations were recorded in lakes with a short residence time. Average winter residence times ranged from a minimum of 10 days to a maximum of 436 days and average summer values from a minimum of 23 days to a maximum of 215 days. When this model was used to predict the residence time of the lakes in the 2050s, the greatest winter decrease ()20%) was observed in the smallest lake and the greatest summer increase (+92%) in the lake with the shortest residence time. 1647 7. The results are discussed in relation to trends reported elsewhere in Europe and the impact of changes in the atmospheric circulation on the dynamics of the lakes. The most serious limnological effects were those projected for the summer and included a general increase in the stability of the lakes and a decrease in the flushing rate of the lakes with short residence times.

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Section: The Observed Variations In the Weathermentioning

confidence: 95%

The impact of climate change on the physical characteristics of the larger lakes in the English Lake District

2007

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“…Remotely sensed data capture offers considerable potential for the future, for example with altimetric and areal studies of snowfield and glacier states (eg, Dwyer, 1995;Schaper et al, 1999), but also for river levels (eg, Vorosmarty et al, 1996;Bjerklie et al, 2003), once ground-truth calibrations and suitable image resolution are established. Daultrey, 1996Chaboureau and Claud, 2003Busuioc et al, 2001Lawler et al, 2003precipitation Fowler and Kilsby, 2002Knippertz et al, 2003Feddersen, 2003Lawler and Wright, 1999Hall, 2003Mares et al, 2002 Hanssen-Bauer and Hoppe and Kiely, 1999Qian et al, 2000Forland, 1998Kiely, 1999Trigo et al, 2002Ruprecht and Kahl, 2003Mayes, 1996 Lefauconnier, 1995Lawler and Wright, 1999Longfield and Macklin, 1999Arnell, 19971999Hodson et al, 1998Phillips et al, 2003Stah1 and Demuth, 1999…”

Section: Data Quality In High-latitude Environmentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Linkages between atmospheric circulation, climate and streamflow in the northern North Atlantic: research prospects

Kingston

Lawler

McGregor

2006

Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment

118

112

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This paper evaluates the relationships between atmospheric circulation, climate and streamflow in the northern North Atlantic region over the last century and especially the last 50 years. Improved understanding of climatic influences on streamflow is vital given the great importance of fluvial processes to natural systems and water resources, especially in the light of recent and predicted climate change. The main focus lies with climatic and hydrologic implications of the major circulation patterns in the northern North Atlantic, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO). The studies reviewed here reveal key relationships between circulation, climate and streamflow across the northern North Atlantic, allowing the construction of a simple conceptual model for this system. Generally positive NAO/AO-streamflow relationships are found in northwest Europe and northeast USA, with both positive and negative NAO/AO-streamflow linkages apparent for parts of eastern Canada. To help promote a better understanding of the system, several research gaps are identified and critically examined, including: the spatial scope and coverage of investigations; data quality and homogeneity; appropriateness of analytical techniques; and the need for greater knowledge and technique sharing between hydrology and climatology, particularly regarding the rigorous characterization of atmospheric circulation patterns. Among these, the development of seasonally varying, or mobile, NAO indices, to capture variations in subseasonal, seasonal and annual movements in the centres of action, and the need to develop analyses of more hydrologically meaningful climate variables beyond conventional time averaged statistics, are deemed particularly important.

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Precipitation and atmospheric circulation patterns at mid‐latitudes of Asia

Aizen

Mélack

et al. 2001

Intl Journal of Climatology

318

207

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Analyses of the coupling between large-scale atmospheric patterns and modifications of regional precipitation regimes at seasonal and annual time scales in different terrain of mid-latitudes in Asia, including western Siberia, Tien Shan and Pamir mountains, and plains of middle Asia and Japanese Islands, were examined based on data from 57 and 88 hydro-climatic stations with 100 and 60 year records, respectively. For the past 100 years, a positive trend in precipitation was revealed in western Siberia, northern regions of Tien Shan and Japanese Islands. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and West Pacific Oscillation (WPO) indices have inverse associations, with average amount of precipitation in western Siberia and in mountains and plains of middle Asia, and positive correlation in central and western regions of Japanese Islands. The Pacific North American (PNA) index is positively correlated with annual precipitation over most of the Japanese Islands. Northern Asian (NA) positive anomalies lead to decrease in winter precipitation in the western and eastern regions of Japanese Islands. We did not find significant impact of PNA or NA on precipitation in middle Asia. We suggest that during the last century, impacts of the western jet stream increased in the northern regions of Tien Shan and Japanese Islands, and weakened in the eastern Japanese Islands. There is a suggestion that conditions are more favourable for precipitation development over continental regions of Asia when the Siberian High is positioned further to the east than further to the west. During dominant development of a zonal atmospheric pattern, the annual and seasonal precipitation decreased over most regions in continental Asia and central Japan.

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The Influences of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the EL Niño/Southern Oscillation and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on Winter Precipitation in Ireland

Cited by 4 publications

References 42 publications

The impact of climate change on the physical characteristics of the larger lakes in the English Lake District

The impact of climate change on the physical characteristics of the larger lakes in the English Lake District

Linkages between atmospheric circulation, climate and streamflow in the northern North Atlantic: research prospects

Precipitation and atmospheric circulation patterns at mid‐latitudes of Asia

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